Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barack Obama. Show all posts

Friday, August 22, 2008

Make it (99.9%) Official

There's a damn good chance Senator Joseph Biden will be the Vice President of the United States in January, 2009. 

Hallelujah.

Biden may have been one of a few great candidates on Obama's "shortlist," but there are precious few statesmen like Biden left in politics, and Obama is lucky to have him on the ticket.

...though we agree with the comment left by "Eli" (likely an Evan Bayh supporter) on NBC New's online forum:

Suffice to say Obama will not win Indiana now no matter how many offices he opens there.

If...Then

If Andrea Mitchell is correct that Evan Bayh and Tim Kaine are out of contention for the VP spot, I have only one thing to say:

I'VE LOVED JOE BIDEN FOR A
LONG TIME (click HERE)

...which is not to say that I won the VP prediction contest by any means. Rather, that it pays off to see all the presidential candidates during the primary season and see who impresses you the most; if they're a downright impressive candidate and they don't end up winning the nomination, put them on VP watch...

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

An Unimportant State?


Think again.


If you need another reason to pick Evan Bayh, it's because with Indiana switching back to Republican control in recent polls, the electoral map looks way too close for a "landslide" candidate like Obama who's supposed to turn all those red states into blue states.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

"Backstage with Barack": Some Darn Good Fundraising


It's a pretty simple concept.

If you give $5 or more to the Obama campaign, your name is entered into a drawing to spend some time with Obama before he goes on stage to accept the Democratic nomination.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems very unlikely that a politician about to give the biggest speech of his life would enjoy being bothered by ten strangers and their guests. Just think what would happen if the campaign actually randomly selected the winners and ended up with a bunch of ex-Hillary supporters that didn't really love Obama but wanted to give him a few bucks anyway to win in November.

Not very good publicity there, right?


I can't say I'm at all surprised by the ten guests that will be with Obama in Denver (the list was released yesterday). Here are some good ones:

A teacher from a small Montana farming village.

An evangelical grandfather and ex-MIKE HUCKABEE supporter from a swing state.

A female college student from Alaska who is "interviewing native elders about their experiences with segregation" for summer break.

And Trinance, "a single mother and disabled veteran who served overseas for the Iraq War."

My apologies to the many thousands who donated money hoping to win and were instead overlooked as the Obama campaign hunted for some "lucky winners" with relevant and juicy stories.

...as the Obama campaign laughs all the way to the bank...

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Obama in Europe: Nowhere to Hide

Ignoring how effective the Obama campaign's voter registration drive is, it's starting to be a wee bit irritating.



Yes, those are Obama signs at Rome's Piazza Navona.

"Americans in Italy for Obama" are some nice folks, and registration drives for Americans Abroad in Europe says a lot about the strength of Obama's worldwide strength.


Really. Impressive.

...even if vacations better without campaign '08 sneaking in...

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Get Me Out of Here

I've been holed up in the attic editing videos all week, and while clips load and transitions render I've been surfing around YouTube and RealClearPolitics, reading and watching whatever I find.

As a result of working for VoteGopher.com, a website that compares the presidential candidates on the issues, I have learned a great deal about John McCain and Barack Obama on policies that matter a lot to me. Using VoteGopher's "My Ballot" feature and opting not to put unduly high emphasis on "Message" or "Controversies," my results came out to be a tie—22 points for McCain, 22 points for Obama.

To be honest, I was floored by those results. Back in June I took a similar candidate quiz and, though by a small margin, favored Obama. After spending hours and hours editing 25 videos comparing Obama and McCain head-to-head, things are getting a lot closer in my mind.

After hearing McCain and Obama talk about terrorism, Iraq, and Afghanistan on the campaign trail countless times, I no longer see Obama's move to pull out of Iraq immediately as a good thing, and after reading this today I wonder if Obama's foreign policy plans aren't based on some popular assumptions about Afghanistan as "the right war."

Now that I've sorted through position videos and papers about the two candidates' positions on education, I wonder if McCain is really leading the way by proposing to move towards the use of vouchers. This article makes it seem as if Obama's plan is a little "old school" in an un-Obama kind of way.

And on energy, I'm not convinced that we shouldn't explore options for certain domestic oil drilling projects. It seems stubborn to rule out cleaner and safer oil drilling as a healthy complement to the widespread introduction of alternative energies in the United States. McCain has long intrigued me on the issue of the economy, but he's now starting to convince me.

On top of it, all I seem to hear about Obama recently is "Speech in Berlin" and "Open Convention!" Not to mention a stead stream of creepy, Obama-cult garbage like this video on YouTube:

[If we're accusing Obama of having a big ego, we should label Will.I.Am and all the other celebrity political preachers in his videos similarly]



Give me an open road to Maine, some McCain events, and two days or so to clear my head from Obama—he and I really need some time apart.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

The Hype Machine



Blah, blah, blah.

Per the New York Post:

Take his decision to deliver his acceptance speech at Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver. It seems that the venue for the rest of the Democratic convention - the Pepsi Center (occupancy 21,000) - is just too small.

Obama says he wants to give the common folk more "access" to the process. Only a man with an Olympian's sense of entitlement to mass worship could describe such a choreographed descent upon a place called "Mile High" as an effort to bond with the common man. A demigod, it seems, is never so tall as when he stoops to bask in the adoration of the little people.

Seriously.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Barack, Say Yes Just Once

"No" to joint town halls with McCain. "No" to public financing. Now it's "no" to a town hall meeting at Fort Hood with John McCain.

Read it HERE.

Obama's free to do whatever he wants, and if he really does have a "previously scheduled commitment on the date proposed," than I understand why August 11th won't work for him, but check out the following from the NY Times article:

“I’m having extreme difficulty getting the Obama campaign to commit to this event, and we do not understand why,” said Ms. Picard, whose husband is deployed in Iraq. “We made it very clear to them that if they would commit to the event, we would work with them on dates.”

The organizers released details about the event in hopes that it would pressure the Obama campaign to agree to the event.

“This was a decision that was made with tremendous difficulty, to publicize it,” Ms. Picard said. “We were at a point where we had no other option. We got the impression that they could talk us to November.”
I'm starting to get the impression too that the Obama campaign turns down these offers time and time again only to scramble to schedule their own event on the date mentioned. 

How can Obama prove me (and a growing number of disappointed voters) wrong? Take McCain up on one of McCain's offers. 

Is John McCain really that much better in the town hall format, or is the Obama campaign simply going to script this election their way?

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Preference Polls vs. Favorability Polls

People may make up their mind about who they're going to vote for at the last minute—something conventional polling cannot account for or predict—but candidate favorability/unfavorability polls shed light on why voters like or dislike candidates on political positions as well as more personal, emotional levels.

That's why I think Newsweek's set of Obama and McCain favorability polls released today are so exciting:

Obama: Favorable +24.0
McCain: Favorable +23.0

Obama's number is down from an all-time high of +36, while McCain weighs in relatively high after a few months of polling placed him somewhere between +/- 0 to +20.

Do these numbers show that Obama is losing supporters and is now more widely disliked than he was previously? No. But the polling shows that two relatively well-liked candidates are running for the Presidency this November, and that's pretty exciting.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Obama & Clinton New York City Fundraiser Photos


All photos: Luke N. Vargas. 2008. All Rights Reserved.

Food for Thought

IMG_7592 copy

Before launching into the trademark conclusion of his campaign speeches—'if we come together, we can do more than win an election, we can change this country, we can change the world'—he said (not an exact quote) "both Hillary Clinton and I will work for you in Washington."

I have never been a supporter of the Hillary Clinton VP option, and I don't like to throw it subtly into whatever I write, but Obama's words seemed a lot different than the usual "Hillary Clinton is a great supporter and I appreciate her hard work."

Food for thought.

An interesting event—and more interesting once I can get my hands on a transcript of this morning's remarks.

Clinton Off, Obama On Stage

Hillary Clinton delivered a MUCH tighter speech than her Unity, NH introduction. Longer, punchier, and, because she is the local Senator here, much more comfortable.

After two weeks campaigning and fundraising together since Unity, Hillary Clinton has not only transitioned very naturally from Obama's competitor to Obama's fellow campaigner. In that new role Clinton seems able to reflect on her own campaign more smoothly; both she had Obama acknowledged the "ugly biases" that sometimes flared up during the primary fight.

Obama just took the stage and, despite the crowd's willingness to give him a long standing ovation, quickly thanked and quieted the audience before diving into his own speech; a typical move to help stick to the day's schedule (his next event is in 3 1/2 hours in Virginia), but a tad unnatural for Obama.

Photos look good, they'll be up later.

McCain Campaign Begins NH Intern Hunt

Read about it HERE.

The real news is that Barack Obama has been on the ground with a team of paid staffers and a few dozen "Obama Organizing Fellows" for some months now.

Obama's early mobilization on the ground in New Hampshire could certainly help him, but McClatchy's David Lightman acknowledges a strength of John McCain that Obama's timing may not be able to cancel out:
"McCain starts his bid for New Hampshire's four electoral votes with an important potential advantage: He's not only well-known, he's something of a local hero."

Obama did well in January's Democratic primary but didn't emerge a star here. He finished a close second to Hillary Clinton and won 41 percent of the independent vote, the best showing of any candidate among New Hampshire independents but not an overwhelming tally.

Obama is holding a solid margin over McCain in recent New Hampshire polling, but if the recent Republican Primaries there are any indication, voters don't realize how much they admire McCain until it's time to vote....and that's a long way away.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

I Spy


Barack Obama's name has made its way into various pop culture slots for a while now, but mixtapes are new territory.

Above is a screenshot I took of a mixtape released yesterday, DJ Diggz and DJ R-Rated's "Change Gone Come."

Mixtapes are exchanged freely on the web, so give the tape a listen by downloading it HERE.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Taking the Attacks off the Shelf





Barack Obama has had to dodge a few Republican bullets since Hillary Clinton ended her campaign last month, but he hasn't had to deal with what's about to come his way: massive anti-Obama advertising.

Head to head against McCain (debates, town halls, press conferences, etc.) I think Obama can defend himself well enough, but hundreds of millions of Republican dollars will soon be pumped into television sets around the country to try and change voters' opinions about Obama. It is the sad truth of modern day elections, but a large portion of the electorate will vote in November based upon their "impressions" of Obama, not what he actually stands for as a politician.

Some of these ads will be successful (think Swift Boat Vets for Truth...) and some won't be. But one thing is clear to me: negative advertising will be very effective in stopping Obama's inroads into new Democratic territory—Montana, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana—where unpleasant half-truths about Obama will resonate with a traditionally conservative base of voters.


Mixing it Up, Again

The L.A. Times and DemConWatch are reporting that the Obama campaign will move Barack's nomination acceptance speech from Denver's Pepsi Center to Invesco Field. In terms that everyone will understand: they're taking the show from the basketball arena to the football stadium.


The New York Magazine's Sam Anderson presented (in a brilliant piece a few weeks back) three routes Obama could take for delivering his DNC speech this year:

1) To give a highly rhetorical and typical "brilliant" Obama speech.

2) To break the mold of the 'Great Obama Speech.' Says Anderson, "His greatest speech, in this situation, might actually be a bad one."

3) Anderson's third (and favorite) option was for Obama to "fundamentally reimagine the occasion, as he did with the race speech, and blow the roof off the building."

If Obama does decide to take his speech to a outdoor crowd nearing 100,000, the spectacle of the occasion could do a lot of the talking for Obama. Without saying a word, Obama would already have redefined the notion of the accepting the nomination.


[EDIT 7/7] The Obama campaign has confirmed Obama's speech will be held at Invesco Stadium. As reported by CNN: "Convention organizers portrayed the move as a reflection of Obama's success at encouraging people to vote for the first time."

I don't buy it—nobody was demanding Obama move to a larger venue for his speech. The Obama campaign should realize that voters demand more important things than to see their candidate at large rallies.

[EDIT #2] The location change is now being used as a fundraising opportunity.


To continue my above commentary, "The Obama campaign should realize that voters demand more important things than to PAY for the opportunity to see their candidate at large rallies."



Thursday, July 3, 2008

Start Believing

Rasmussen:
It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier.

Rasmussen's latest Montana head-to-head poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 5%.

As they say, truly stunning...especially when you look at how Montana voted in 2004.



Saturday, June 28, 2008

Unity Had Occurred, Regardless of the Pageantry


I rarely spend much time preparing for a campaign event. All I need is a few hours to charge my camera batteries and I'm on my way.

My routine changed for yesterday's "United for Change" rally. Not only did I repeatedly (and unnecessarily) submit my request for press credentials to guarantee that I was given access, but I gave the event more that its fair share of attention over the past few days. On Wednesday I predicted a larger crowd than expected, imagining news headlines like: "Tens of Thousands Make Pilgrimage to Unity." As it happens one could summarize the whole event as simply, "2,500 Unite for Historic Event," but that doesn't tell the whole story.

Driving to New Hampshire yesterday I played out a number of scenarios in my head about the rally. I expected a bunch of older voters and stay-at-home moms and dads to show up. I also figured there would be a smattering of protesters, both Republicans and Democrats. It seemed pretty simple: the two candidates would share the stage as a symbol of the Democratic Party's unification, and while most everyone would be excited, a handful of disgruntled ex-Clinton supporters would try to make the news with "Obama's an Empty Suit!" signs.

True, true, and true.


I had never felt it before at an Obama event, but I half expected (to borrow Clinton's previously sarcastic line) "the sky to open, the light to come down, and celestial choirs to start singing" outside the middle school in Unity. As it turns out, I could barely muster goosebumps.

Although the rally was a solid event, it never really took off the way one would have expected given the two historic candidates who were uniting their efforts for the first time. In part, I believe this was due to some missed opportunities. I expected (as did others I spoke with) that both Senators Obama and Clinton would finally loosen up and use yesterday's event as an opportunity to poke fun at their long primary fight in order to lighten the mood and release some of the tension and pent up emotions between their two campaigns, and to move on, with a shared laugh, towards a sense of shared community that would be felt by both of the candidates' backers. That never happened. In addition, for so long now, Obama and Clinton supporters have prided themselves on being different from each other and I never felt like either of the Senators took a moment yesterday to simply break the ice and acknowledge those differences (the proverbial "elephant in the room") and state that they would be valued and respected, as part of the process of bridging the interests of their respective campaigns.


As I stepped off the school bus that transported the media to the event, I couldn't help but notice the giant wooden "U-N-I-T-Y" prop that had been suspended on the side of the stage, not to mention the new "United for Change" signs that were being distributed. It was clear that the Obama campaign wanted to turn this rally into something truly spectacular. From my point of view that did not happen.

It strikes me now that it was not the Obama campaign's fault that yesterday's rally was not one of the more memorable campaign events I've been to. Beyond the logistical difficulties inherent in organizing a campaign event --delays in bussing thousands of people into and out of a tiny rural town, long waits, and occasionally inadequate facilities--all of which occurred here, first, in the hot sun, and then, in a fierce thunderstorm. The hardest part—the part that the Obama campaign had difficulty achieving —was how to market the idea of "unity" in ways to create a compelling front page story and make a big splash.

New Hampshire Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter said it best yesterday: "Did anyone ever doubt this moment would happen?"

Whether or not anyone will remember what was said in Unity, NH, the moment has occurred.



(Photo credit: Luke N. Vargas. 2008. All Rights Reserved)

Thursday, June 26, 2008

A Romantic Comedy


A joint campaign stop in Unity, NH and then a campaign donation from Obama to Hillary Clinton. The storyline keeps getting cheesier and cheesier (and better).

How many great jokes about their long nomination contest will Clinton and Obama's speechwriters throw into the two candidates' remarks tomorrow? Tons.

Bring it on, Unity!

Live from The Armory


I'm in the blogging section of the Manchester, NH Radisson Hotel's Armory Ballroom.

On stage are Michelle Obama, Jeanne Shaheen, and four female New Hampshire panelists. The topics of discussion today are issues concerning working women and the struggles middle-class families face in New Hampshire.

Michelle Obama opened the event with prepared remarks that she seemed to struggle through (and she seemed a little uncomfortable playing the political game of introductions and thank yous) but she has settled into her role as discussion moderator very well, and ideas and stories are being shared and spoken very naturally.


Did Michelle Obama perform well as a smiling face on stage behind her husband? Yes, but she's excelling in a much more politically useful role now.

There will be a lot to write about this event once I return back to Massachusetts late Friday.


(All photos: Luke N. Vargas. 2008. All Rights Reserved)