McCain v. Huckabee

Huckabee's wins last night are certainly an interesting story.

Part of his success was the result of a grassroots reaction to the "McCain's the nominee" story that has been everywhere since Super Tuesday. Loyal Huckabee voters (which most of them are) decided to brave the cold of a February night in Kansas to support their man while McCain's supporters likely didn't see the need.

Senator McCain's February 5th victories established him as the man to beat, but he's done everything except nail down that title for himself. Mike Huckabee's wins today in Louisiana and Kansas, as well as his very close (as of 2:07 A.M.) second place finish in Washington—a state far away from Huckabee's South that would geographically change the dynamic of Huckabee's campaign—are a sign that things are not 100% settled on the Republican side.


Huckabee will win counties in Virginia next weekend, and he'll likely win a bunch of them due to his strong support in neighboring West Virginia and the state's Christian population outside of the cities. If Virginia does not go to McCain, or Huckabee puts up a very strong result, Governor Huckabee has no need to drop out of the race, and he could once again have a serious shot of making a stand in the long fight against McCain.

It's an unlikely scenario having Huckabee go head to head with the McCain movement across the country, but he's somehow hanging in there with a level of grace matched only by Senator McCain himself.

A civil, yet contested Republican battle...who woulda thought?


(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Dollars in a Basket

Huckabee is going door to door, pew to pew.

I recently received an Urgent Reply letter from the Huckabee campaign. As Governor Huckabee continues campaigning in a post-Iowa, less evangelical-friendly world, he's discovering quickly that one thing he needs badly is money.

In a tactic that I can imagine being used in the churches Huckabee used to be the minister of in Arkansas, the campaign is sending out $1 bills along with their campaign contribution pitches and asking that supporters return it and enclose in the reply envelope an additional contribution.

An interesting move? Very.

A good sign for a candidate trying to compete with the big-money competition of Mitt Romney?

"I Like Mike?"

I took a walk from the convention center and ended up across the river at the Embassy Suites where the Huckabee campaign is holding their reception. Problem is, my very nice idea of visiting a caucus before heading over to a reception is in jeopardy. There is only one tiny press riser here at the Huckabee ballroom, not anywhere near enough space for the dozens and dozens of photographers that will likely show up later this evening. If i stayed here and held down my spot I'd be fine, but I'm too restless for that.

Time to find a caucus location and head over. Hopefully there'll be space at someone's reception later.

A Crowded Room and the Comeback Kid

That would be John McCain.

When Tucker Carlson and the rest of the national media personalities (Russert, Mitchell, Stephanopoulos) filed into the conference room of Senator McCain's Urbandale, Iowa HQ he shouted across the room, "You bet I'm about to call the fire marshall about this."


McCain didn't just show up with every recognizable television news personality, he came with Senator John Thune, former presidential candidate Sam Brownback, and South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham. The only surrogate that didn't show up was Tim Pawlenty—a tried and true McCain cheerleader for over a year (and my VP pick should McCain pick up the nomination). Even four of his fellow POWs from Vietnam were there. One of those POWs spoke of McCain's ability to lead, saying, "We've actually seen him under fire." That comment hung over the crowd throughout McCain's extended introduction.


The theme of Senator McCain's campaign here in Iowa is evolving. Though the national media is hammering in the scare tactic strategy evident in one of the Senator's homeland security television ads, McCain's tone on the ground in Iowa is a more moderate one, one of a leader who can protect this country through his ability to work with others and pass crucial legislation. It's a tone that's resonating in Iowa, and one that could propel McCain to a strong third place finish despite his largely passing up campaigning here.


It's the same trend that's taking over New Hampshire. The media, led by pundits quick to make early election predictions, ruled out McCain's campaign this summer after poor fundraising numbers, but it was the media's message that changed, not John McCain's—his message is strong, optimistic, and consistent.



(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Some Insider Insight

A McCain campaign chair, who preferred not to be named, I spoke to last night in Urbandale offered his own prediction on tonight's eventual results—that Mike Huckabee's county-by-county organization in Iowa will pay off tremendously when the votes start being cast.

It's reflective of the mood last night at McCain's rally; the McCain camp would LOVE a Huckabee win here for the shot it would deliver to Romney in New Hampshire.

It's Over.

Chuck Norris endorsed Mike Huckabee today, end of story.

"When the boogeyman goes to sleep every night, he checks his closet for Chuck Norris."

Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson better start watching out for Huckabee too--this guy is no benchwarmer anymore.

The First Domino Falls

Word is that Senator Sam Brownback will be the next to drop out of the 2008 presidential race (read it HERE).

I never spent much time following Brownback around New Hampshire, but the few times I saw him summed up his campaign's basic strength and biggest barrier pretty easily: Brownback was interesting enough to listen to, but neither charismatic or bold enough to seek out. In fact, the one memory I will have of Brownback once the '08 election wraps up is that he had a joint campaign stop with Democrat Joe Biden on their Iraq federal proposal.

So what does this mean for the GOP field?

Is a Brownback endorsement for Huckabee or John McCain coming?

Though Brownback never rallied the entire Christian right as he hoped, throwing his weight behind Huckabee would be a big move, and one that could really kick-start the Governor's campaign and give him the traction he needs.

And with that, best of luck to Brownback in the 2010 Kansas Governor race!


(photo credit: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Huckabee, $$, and Ron Paul

All the analysts say Mike Huckabee has the charm, but not the traction to be a viable GOP candidate. Those analysts can make whatever claims they want, but the newest Rasmussen poll has Huckabee at 18% in the state, only 7 points behind Mitt Romney, and statistically tied with Fred Thompson.

So what's holding Huckabee back on a national level? Let these two graphics from the homepages of Huckabee and Ron Paul:

-Huckabee-


-Ron Paul-


Yeah, that's right. Ron Paul is looking to raise $4 before the end of the month. Huckabee on the other hand is looking for only $200,000.

Since starting this post a little over 20 minutes ago, the Paul campaign has brought in an additional $2,000 versus Huckabee's $300.

Regardless, these two guys have spent a combined $4 million on their campaigns--can Mitt Romney, Clinton, or Obama say they've done so much with the money they've spent as Huckabee and Paul have done for elevating political discourse in this country?

I think not.

Why I Like Mike: Putting it Together

The past few months I've weighed the merits of the Republican and Democratic fields of candidates, choosing among the diverse crowd of presidential hopefuls who seems to embody the things we need most in a leader. I play favorites, and I won't deny I'm impressed with the experience and rationality of Chris Dodd and inspired by the story and leadership of John McCain, but until now I've yet to synthesize how I feel about Governor Huckabee, so here goes:

First and foremost I'm a sucker for candidates who take risks, especially when the risks taken end up benefitting average Americans. Mike Huckabee's advocacy for health reform and art education in schools won't be the talk of the political newswires, but many of his proposals are for the betterment of the country in ways many of us aren't aware of.

Whether under the spotlight of the media or a large crowd, Mike Huckabee is able to connect with every person in is presence as if he were meeting with and talking to them one on one. Such a skill is uncommon, and many of the 2008 frontrunners maintain multiple personalities: one for interviews and one for greeting ordinary people and voters. It's reassuring to have a sense of security in your elected official that they won't turn into a different person behind closed doors. Mike Huckabee's honest character would be a breathe of fresh air after living through years of government with very little transparency.

Huckabee's issue page on "Crisis Management" speaks highly of his accomplishments as the Governor of Arkansas, but like the modesty he seems to always display, he never once crosses into shameless self-promotion; polite acknowledgment of one's strengths is admirable, but capitalizing on the tragedy of others can be left to other candidates, not Huckabee. Further emphasizing his strength of character, it seems that for Huckabee, his greatest achievements have been his most personal: his fight to lose weight and his religious devotion, especially.

While other candidates seek to win over our trust and support by touting their military and foreign policy experience only, Mike Huckabee's genuine sincerity and commitment to his values and reputation make him truly stand out in the Republican field.

It's on my iTunes

I've got to say it's better than "Obama Girl," and the quality sure ain't bad for a guy playing guitar right in front of his computer.

All it seems to be missing is the Governor on bass.

Give it a moment to get going...

It's Rallied GOP Support Before...

Apparently gay marriage is now legal in Iowa, and all I can think of is the 2004 election's slew of gay marriage proposals on ballots across the country and the high turnout from the Republican base to vote against gay marriage in 11 states. Now Iowa, one of the hottest states in the primary process will be dealing with its own gay marriage conflict.

Though there won't be a ballot initiative regarding gay marriage on any Iowa ballot soon, the entrance of the gay marriage debate into the state's politics will certainly cause some Iowa Republicans to be up in arms and throw their support behind a candidate staunchly against the expansion of gay marriage. Whether it's Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, or some other smooth-talking candidate that presses hard on the issue, voters will likely start to move behind social conservatives because of this news.

Did I not say a while back (HERE) that Huckabee would find his time?

The Photostream

My latest images from the campaign trail--









(all photos: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Nobody Wins

There's been a small war of words between the campaigns of Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback recently. For those of you who've missed out on the excitement, a Huckabee supporter criticized Brownback's Catholicism in an email. One of Brownback's PR people sent a message to the Huckabee campaign after catching word of the email:

"Why is Governor Huckabee hesitating to denounce the anti-Catholic comments from his supporter, Pastor Tim Rude?"

This type of communication between campaigns isn't uncommon, but the email I received today from the Huckabee campaign certainly is. Instead of tacitly apologizing by stating that the email originated from a supporter and putting an end to the matter, Chip Saltsman (Huckabee's Campaign Manager) used the opportunity to take a low blow at Brownback.



It's a shame someone like Huckabee--one of most sincere and personable candidates in the 2008 field--has resorted to attacks on John Edwards' hair, Michael Moore's belly, and now one of his fellow Republicans in order to get some press attention. There are ways second-tier candidates can make names for themselves without all of that dirtiness (look at Joe Biden's YouTube debate performance.)

The pastor's email was private and outside of the control of Huckabee, but the words of Huckabee's own campaign manager weakened his apology. I rubbed my eyes a few times after reading the email to make sure those guys are running a PRESIDENTIAL campaign.

The following are excerpts from the "IMMEDIATE PRESS RELEASE" that just showed up in my inbox:

"It's time for Sam Brownback to stop whining and start showing some of the Christian character he seems to always find lacking in others...For Brownback to claim that the Governor "owes him an apology" is nonsense and indicates that if Brownback is going to fall to pieces every time a supporter of the Governor says something he doesn't like, he clearly isn't tough enough to be President...The Governor strongly disavowed the statement by the supporter, but that wasn't enough for Brownback. He continued to cry about it."

I'm in high school, but I still remember those nasty letters that middle school girls would send to each other during their periodic feuds.



(photo credit: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Until NPR Asked the Questions....

Until this weekend I agreed with a lot of what Governor Mike Huckabee has stood for in his campaign. I didn’t so much mind his position of leaving the issue of gay marriage up to the states. With abortion, I stood by his “life begins at conception, but it doesn't end at birth" line. But when I heard Huckabee talk about America’s health care crisis I realized, finally, enough with the one-liners.

Mike Huckabee recently appeared on National Public Radio's "On Point" with Tom Ashbrook (Listen HERE). The hour-long segment included a conversation with Ashbrook and a short piece with questions from listeners. One answer that Huckabee offered caught my attention: his response to a question from an individual who asked why Huckabee does not support a single-payer system to solve the health care crisis in America (yes, there IS a crisis—CLICK HERE). The Governor's response really put me off and bumped him down on the list of Republican candidates in my eyes.

Mike rephrased the listener’s question and instead insisted that the problem in America is not a "health care crisis," rather a "health crisis." He continued with a barrage of lines including, "we're paying to treat the guy who fell off the cliff instead of putting a fence on the cliff."


I don't agree with everything Michael Moore says, but ‘SiCKO” made me aware of a reality in America where many of our fellow citizens are denied the care they desperately need. Millions of Americans, who experience everything from accidental injuries like severed fingers to a range of cancer types, go untreated because they can’t afford the cost of proper, complete treatment. Even worse, many of these people HAD insurance and the faith that the money they paid companies such as Aetna, Cigna, and Humana would guarantee them care if and when they needed it.

Sadly, I don't think these individuals would see any improvement in their situation under a Huckabee administration.

We were passed by Europe a long time ago with regards to recognizing the need for universal health care...but Latin America?! Check out this quote from 'wikipedia':

Most countries in Latin America have public health care provided. Mexico is planning to launch its own universal health care network...Health care in Venezuela is probably the most extensive and given the country's fortunes in oil wealth, expenditure has recently increased greatly, starting with mass vaccinations.

47,000,000 Americans don't have health insurance. That’s fact. The saddest part of the problem is that while America can boast it’s one of the most compassionate nations in the world because of our tradition of liberty and freedom for all, so many of the important figures in this country are so dug in to positions of small government and lower taxes at any cost that political principle and individualism might win out over the morally right solution—universal health care. I'm firm in my belief that every American should indirectly pay for universal health care for the 47,000,000 Americans that can’t afford it now. Furthermore, such a system doesn’t lead towards a society of dependence and unfair burdens being placed on those of us who are insured; a working-class citizen could fall into poverty by paying $60,000 for finger surgery or a few hundred bucks extra in taxes that would guarantee free health care for their family.

Which option seems more American to you? Should we have a nation where injuries go untreated and sicknesses claim thousands of lives because we won’t all chip in to solve the problem?

Mike Huckabee says that what separates us from the terrorists is that they celebrate death while we celebrate life. Well, 18,000 people die in the United States each year because they can’t afford health insurance and the care they need. I won’t argue that the terrorists don’t celebrate death more than us, but we have got to realize that even a great country like the United States can no longer get by on reputation and tradition alone.

I won't call out Huckabee as not being compassionate, as I think he's one of the most caring politicians out there, at least among the current GOP field of candidates. I do think, however, that he's dead wrong about the actual problem of health care in America.

I have relatives who've fallen seriously ill and have their insurance company refuse to pay for their treatment. Mr. Huckabee, they didn't smoke, they weren't overweight, they didn't do drugs, they suffered because no politician has had the guts to stand up to America's biggest criminals: the insurance industry. 47,000,000 uninsured Americans sure sounds like more than a “health crisis” to me.


(all photos: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Huckabee Rocks New Hampshire

The weather may have been iffy at times, but Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Capitol Offense (his band of long-time buddies and Arkansas capitol workers) put on a lively show at the Delta Dental Northeast HQ in Concord, NH.

There's something to be said for a politician who can show off a talent besides speech-delivery and writing; Mike Huckabee's skill on the bass qualifies him as a solid musician who could play at the White House dinners instead of just watching.

It's like Huckabee's philosophy about education: if you can add something new and interesting into the education of a child, be it music or art, it's an opportunity not to be wasted. The same holds true with the constant barrage of campaign stops and bus tours--who wouldn't want to see a Governor play in a rock concert?

In keeping with the picnic-like atmosphere, Huckabee left out the long talks about policy and the presidency. In his words, "we want to prove tonight that you can have a lot of fun being a Republican and supporting Mike Huckabee for President." And with that Mike and the band launched straight into 'Roll Over Beethoven.'

I've got a feeling the rest of this coming primary season won't be as light and fun as Huckabee's concert would make it seem, but hot-dogs, music, and Mike Huckabee sure make for a nice afternoon.

Note: I'll have some video from the concert up later when I'm finished editing it together.


(all photos: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

The Tuesday Morning Conference Call

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee hosted a bloggers conference call this morning with guests James Robison and Michael Farris. The Governor fielded questions from a number of bloggers on everything from his recent surge in Iowa and New Hampshire polls to fundraising efforts and education policy.
______________
Huckabee's two guests provided the discussion with some good points and obervations:
-----------
Robison commented that the next President must communicate with people and deal with the media.

Farris added that Huckabee is the most able political communicator he's ever met, a statement that I can understand. On the occasions that I've met him, Huckabee is genuine and, unlike other candidates, doesn't answer a question in the shortest way possible in order to move on. Farris also pointed out that the only Republicans to win the presidency in recent history have been true conservatives; moderates don't win. He concluded by saying that, "Mayors of New York don't win. Governors win."
______________

I wasn't able to ask my prepared question to the Governor, but Huckabee and his campaign managers have recognized the positive reception for these conference calls and Huckabee mentioned he would be holding another call soon.

Even if you don't agree with his politics, Huckabee is the great communicator of the 2008 race, and his campaign is following its candidate's sprit by being one of the most open and accessible for bloggers like me.

Hats off to Huckabee!

Targeting the Base of Your Support...With an Actual Gun

I recently stumbled across an interesting summary of a Tom Tancredo event in New Hampshire. The Congressman spoke about protecting the right of Americans to own and carry guns, and it just so happened that a number of those in attendance were actually carrying concealed weapons and weren't shy about letting everyone know.

It's not hard to see why Tancredo's campaign is running into the ground; not only has he scaled down his campaign effort in New Hampshire, but he's not even talking about the issues that the top tier of candidates are having to wrestle with. Aside from the small portion of the population that considers protecting gun rights as the most pressing issue in America, the majority of us realize that a candidate whose strongest points are making sure only English is taught in schools, mandating that a 2,000 border fence is built, and broadening gun rights would fail to properly address issues like poverty, the environment, and a peaceful resolution of the Iraq war.

It's the most used saying in the campaign phrase book, and Tancredo seems to be using it now, "If we can place well in the __ primary, than our campaign will really take off."

I hate to rain on Mr. Tancredo's parade, but candidates such as Governor Mike Huckabee and Governor Mitt Romney (who have placed similar emphasis on states like New Hampshire) are actually seeing a rise in their support in the granite state.


Tancredo has nearly $600,000 in cash on hand for the '08 election, but he's got a long way to go before he can start building his border fence...

Horses and Huckabee

A week ago I made the winding journey from Boston to Francestown, New Hampshire for an intimate afternoon house party with Mike Huckabee. For a sleepy town on a stormy day, the Governor drew a lively gathering of local residents (and a handful of press) at a quaint horse farm. The two dozen or more local residents and supporters that showed up looking to get some face time and talk with the Arkansas man gaining traction little by little in the state parked their cars and pickups on an uneven horse field surrounded by a New England-style fence. And face time we got.

The Governor spoke with all assembled for about fifteen minutes before giving a short but substantive speech and taking a handful of questions that covered everything from the legalization of medical marijuana to foreign policy. Huckabee's most stirring comments came after a question about energy independence and alternative energy technologies. Instead of falling in line with the passive (at best) attitudes of many Republican candidates on the issue of energy and the environment, Huckabee inspired the group by posing the challenge of making America energy-independent and free from the stranglehold that foreign nations have on our economic security. He compared the challenge ahead to our past quest to put a man on the moon—that in ten years the country went from bottle rockets to technological greatness. Such a challenge didn’t seem to worry Huckabee, whose calming attitude of pleasant conversation and peaceful practicality seem a necessary break from seven years of stubborn decision-making from a confrontational President.

It will take a few months to see if Huckabee’s campaign goes anywhere, and with poll numbers creeping up after a series of nationally-televised debates Huckabee’s true test will be to show he’s capable of bringing in the contributions that can inch him ever closer to the top tier in the Republican party.

The "Telling America What You Believe" Report Card, Part 1.

Blind to each candidate's actual beliefs on the issue of abortion, I've set off on a journey to see how forthcoming every presidential candidate is on one of the most important topics to voters, abortion...

-------------------------------------------

Romney: "I would like to see each state be able to make its own law with regard to abortion"-
Deffering responsibility to the states on any issue is a crafty way of dodging the question in the majority of interviews, but it will do Romney no good here. D


Giuliani: "Ultimately I believe it's an individual right and a woman should make that choice" & "I tell people what I think. I tell them (to) evaluate me as I am and do not expect them to agree with me on everything. I don't agree with me on everything"-
Rudy's comments here are not only set him apart from what the Republican party believes, but Rudy does the public the pleasure of not clarifying his stance to such a fine degree that it would be hard for anyone to be unsure of his views on the issue. Whether you agree with him, Rudy's openness should be applauded. A+


Huckabee: "I'm pro-life. if I'm going to err, I'm going to err on the side of life. That's just where I come from in my own heart and convictions. As a governor I've signed virtually every kind of pro-life legislation that we can sign under existing federal law."-
It's safe to say that most Republican candidates this election cycle are staunch opponents of abortion, that is not to say however that anyone who makes this known should receive high marks from me. I am impressed by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's clarity on the issue and his strong and consistent pro-life record throughout his career. Contrary to what many believe, I don't think that changing one's view on an issue is THAT bad, but Huckabee's straightforwardness and honesty on his beliefs are admirable. A-


McCain: "I believe that we would be better off by having Roe v. Wade return to the states. And I don’t believe the Supreme Court should be legislating in the way that they did on Roe v. Wade."-
Once again, McCain tries to play the middle ground with his politics, and while indirectly saying he would reverse Row v. Wade, McCain stops short of saying what he really believes (or at least what I think he believes). C-

---------------------------------

I'll keep my eyes our for the other Republicans' comments on abortion and create a follow up to this post in the coming weeks. The dems, a more consistent bunch, will follow.

Who Are the 17%?

A CNN/Opinion Research Corportation poll released today shows why, contrary to what the media is making it appear, the primaries are still eleven months away--

Rudy Giuliani - 34
John McCain - 18
Newt Gingrich - 9
Mitt Romney - 9
George Pataki - 3
Jim Gilmore - 2
Sam Brownback - 2
Chuck Hagel - 2
Ron Paul - 2
Mike Huckabee - 1
Tom Tancredo - 1
Tommy Thompson - 1
Duncan Hunter -
UNSURE - 17

Rudy still holds a commanding lead over McCain and the rest of the pack despite a poor showing in the CPAC straw poll and a virtual disappearance from the public spotlight and campaign trail. Gingrich, although still not an official candidate, also steals a respectable sampling of the vote. Once again, nothing new here.

Lesser known candidates such as Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee currently fall into the polling no man's land with low single-digit figures. Between the two, a 3% representation in polls raises an intriguing question; where is the evangelical vote going?

The answer rests quietly at the bottom of the poll. Assuming that a small percentage of evangelicals shove aside their religious inclinations and chose to support Rudy, McCain, or Romney, the 17% of voters who are unsure matches up quite closely with the 23% of voters in the 2004 Presidential Election who identified themselves as evangelicals.

What kind of impact will this demographic have in the coming months? A huge one. Though Huckabee and Brownback may have to fight it out, my bets are on Mike Huckabee grabbing the support of the religious right and having his new support from social conservatives throw him into the front tier of candidates. It may seem unlikely now, but there will be a time when the Republican base will realize Giuliani and Co. don't agree with core conservative social values as much as would be desired.