What a Night

"We have the most votes, we have the most delegates, and we have the most diverse coalition."

I'm not the only one thinking about this.

Obama may have the most delegates now, but February 5, no matter how much you hate it or love it, is mean, cold, and hard.

Harder than New Hampshire and harder than Iowa...even harder than the flaming heat of Nevada and Vegas.

If Obama wins more than half of the February 5th states (and it wouldn't be impossible), then the door leading to the nomination could really open up. Hell, Obama could even step through it.

I've suggested in the past that looking at some key polls would be a good indication of where this race is going, but after New Hampshire and South Carolina polls proved so inaccurate, it'll be a lot more interesting to watch where Obama and Clinton focus their resources and media machines over the next few days. Even now, as Obama gives his victory speech, Bill Clinton is speaking in Missouri and the Clinton campaign settles into its new offices in Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, and Tennessee.

The National Campaign vs. The Diverse Coalition

Sounds like a heavyweight bout to me...


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A State I Know NOTHING About

South Carolina.

But what I do know is that whatever momentum still exists for the Democrats has been moving towards John Edwards. If it's not clear, Edwards is that little red line at the bottom of the graph above.

So does Edwards have much of a chance to win today? I'd guess not—the real battle is between Clinton and Obama. The stronger than expected finish for Edwards does mean his message resonated in South Carolina, and it will be interesting to see how many former Obama and Clinton supporters moved towards his camp after the recent mudslinging between the frontrunners.

I see the Democratic race being about Super Tuesday; South Carolina is only a momentum shifter leading into the 22-state contest. If Obama does win tonight, what kind of bounce can he expect in states like California or New Jersey?

One New Jersey poll released this past week by Quinnipiac University showed that 74% of Clinton supporters were "not likely at all" or "not too likely" to change their minds before February 5. Compare that to 32% of Obama supporters who are either "somewhat likely" or "very likely" to change their minds and today's outcome in South Carolina may not matter too much.

Watch the bounce.

Wow.

CNN's Democratic Debate live RIGHT NOW is hands-down the most earth-shattering event of the '08 campaign thus far.

Hillary = Smart attacks on Obama so far — present votes, health care plan— but it seems unnecessary, doesn't it? She's winning in the majority of February 5th states and had the momentum going into tonight.

Obama = Having his political record criticized publicly for the first time, and it could either hurt or help him. Obama can no longer claim a perfect political record and skip to how to implement things as President, but with Edwards and Hillary pushing on him so hard there's a chance that voters might sympathize with him tonight.

Edwards = Fantastic. Watch for a 5% jump in S.C. polls overnight.


Keep it up, Dems.

The End of Fred?

I thought so last night. Everyone's talking about Fred Thompson's "impressive" delivery of his post South Carolina primary speech, but as I sat alone in my living room with the lights off and the volume cranked up I could have sworn I was witnessing the end of Fred's campaign.

A word of caution to every candidate, never deliver a speech when less than 5% of the vote's been counted, and never say what Thompson said last night: "We're turning in a little early tonight," "I want to take a minute to speak to you from my heart," and "I want to thank all the people that have travelled with me all these months"—I was seconds away from making calls to friends and family celebrating his withdrawal.

The most poorly managed presidential campaign in recent memory? You bet.