One Morning with John

I wrote about it on January 3 from Iowa, and I'm putting up this video I took of John Edwards' Iowa caucus morning rally in Des Moines in light of his withdrawal from the presidential campaign today.

As always, Edwards was on his game and drove home his points clearly and with the passion I'll always remember him for.


Enjoy.

Reliving Precinct 22

The Harding Middle School north of downtown Des Moines looks like one of those schools built in the 50's that has never been fixed up since.

At 5:45, a full hour and fifteen minutes before the caucus here would begin (the earliest I've ever shown up for an event, for the record), only nine people filled the lunchroom. Of the nine, two were Obama supporters, one woman was setting up her Richardson table, and the other six were volunteers helping to set up and run the caucus.


As voters began to file into the room it was fascinating to observe just how easy it was for people to register to vote. On the spot in less than one minute, a voter could register to caucus by simply providing a form of identification and having their name matched with a list of residents living within the precinct. When one voter showed up without a proof of residence or form of identification he simply walked the block and a half home and picked up his most recent telephone bill and was allowed to caucus.


One of the caucus organizers I spoke with said that precinct 22 only covered a strip of about fifteen to twenty square blocks surrounding the school. Because the caucuses are conducted within small local communities, the atmosphere inside the voting places is friendly. The supporters I saw gathered for Obama, Clinton, and Edwards recognized each other, and two families at the Edwards table said they attended many campaign events over the past few months and decided to support Edwards together. Hearing that made me wonder why the candidates spent a combined $200+ in television advertisements for every caucus-goer this year; it's nice to be reminded that minds are still made up by observation, consideration, and discussion.


As the time neared the 7:00 PM cutoff for arriving to participate in the caucus, a number of families with children began arriving. Of all the preference groups, the Edwards camp had the highest number of young observers—two four-year-olds and two infants.


The first order of business after 7:00 was to select a caucus chair and secretary. The chair of caucus here four years ago read the procedure for selecting these two positions, and, when a younger man rose to announce his attention of running to be the new chair, the decision was put to a vote. With a simple show of hands the younger man was elected caucus chair. He was passed the caucus instructions booklet by the former chair and took over immediately. The same process occurred for selecting the caucus secretary, but this time the incumbent secretary, a short woman with a loud voice who was always encouraging the crowd with pro-Democratic Party slogans, beat out a younger Kucinich supporter.

The caucus chair surveyed the room—which to the best of my judgment looked to be split pretty evenly between Obama and Clinton supporters—and announced in which corners each of the candidates were being represented. Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, and Kucinich each had supporters. Mike Gravel and Chris Dodd had no supporters and were quickly scratched off the caucus chair's list of candidates.


Once everyone had a clear idea of where the candidates' sides were, they were told by the chair to assemble in their preference groups and determine which candidates would be viable. Chairs were pushed together and people stood together behind signs supporting their candidate of choice. The caucus volunteers ran through the list of voters present and the chair announced that 111 voters were in the room and that a candidate would need seventeen supporters to be counted as viable and have their results tallied.

At the news the Richardson group near me counted up quickly, only to discover they only numbered fifteen in total. The Richardson precinct captain, whom I had spoken with earlier and had brought with her to the caucus papers with all of Bill Richardson's positions on key issues, immediately approached two uncommitted voters in the center of the room. As she did so one Kucinich supporter and one Biden supporter joined with the Richardson group; it was no longer necessary for the Richardson precinct captain to fight for her candidate's viability by convincing the undecided voters.


Representatives from each of the campaigns approached a table of about five uncommitted voters. Of the five, all but one, who chose to abstain from voting, moved to the Obama corner. During the process of convincing the uncommitted, two members of the Richardson group quietly slipped out and joined the Obama group as well.

Five minutes later, when the caucus chair counted the Richardson group, their numbers surprisingly tallied to only 15, short of the viability cutoff. When this number was announced to the room, two Edwards supporters left their group to make Richardson viable and give him one of the precinct's four delegates.

The caucus chair asked the precinct captains from all four candidate groups to count up their supporters and report the number to him. As they gathered around him, the chair wrote the numbers on an official caucus results reporting slip while the secretary entered the reported numbers into a caucus calculating program distributed by the Obama campaign. All four precinct captains signed off on the results and the caucus chair quickly phoned in the numbers to the state caucus committee. Within minutes those numbers would be added to the familiar vote tracking tallies that scroll at the bottom of cable news networks' broadcasts; precinct 22 divided its delegates equally among Obama, Clinton, Richardson, and Edwards.


The whole process was quick, well-organized, and altogether painless. Why? Because caucusing is more than just a process that is drearily followed here in Iowa, it's a part of being an Iowan. Even though caucus turnout has been poor in recent years, those who attend know how the process works down to the dime.

Skeptical initially about how often the voters at precinct 22 had caucused in the past I asked an elderly woman if this was her first caucus or not.

She began her answer: "No, I've only been caucusing since the War ended..."

She meant World War II.

This is the Iowan's baby, the caucus. You've got to see it to believe it.



(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

"A Messenger of Determination"

I can only imagine what would have happened if John Edwards had given this speech to Barack Obama's young and cheering crowd at Hoover High School two nights ago.

According to CNN's extensive entrance polling for last night's Iowa Caucus, 52% of voters made up their mind based on which candidate they thought could "bring about change." Of that group, 51% chose Barack Obama; Clinton and Edwards pulled 22% and 20% from that crowed respectively.


As I went to sleep last night I wondered if the Iowa Caucus changed my opinions about Barack Obama. Specifically, after a (big) win for Obama here it looks like he's going to have tremendous, perhaps unstoppable, momentum going into New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Because of the secret ballot format of Iowa Republicans in the caucus process, candidates like Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and Fred Thompson are still able to continue campaigning after mixed to poor results last night. On the Democratic side, candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Chris Dodd pulled only 3% of the vote last night despite having a 16% share of the Iowa vote in polls before the caucus. The unfortunate result of the Iowa preference squeeze is the withdrawal of Dodd and Biden, as well as what seems a deathblow to Richardson's campaign.


What Edwards did last night in his post-caucus speech was to redefine his campaign—recommitting himself to working class Americans, providing an unparalleled health care system for all, and fighting to end corporate greed and abuse. They were points he's made for months, but Edwards delivered a ten minute confirmation of purpose for both his campaign and his life, and did more than tout his will to 'change,' he touched the crowd by laying out specifics about the problems that he saw and what he wanted to change.

What besides his frequent mentioning of the word makes Obama any more capable of being an agent for change? Doesn't Edwards have the conviction, the personal and political experience, and the unsurpassed proposals for economic and social change in America?.

You decide.


(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Continuing a Different Fight

The Dodd bus rolls back to Washington—where the Senator will go back to fighting for the things his campaign has been about since the beginning.

My hat goes off Dodd for a campaign of civility, leadership, and courage.




(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

At Edwards HQ

Over the past ten minutes the main ballroom at John Edwards' Des Moines campaign reception complex has filled up. Sam Adams in hand, the mood here is mixed, yet propelled by Edwards campaign manager, Joe Trippi, who is spinning the Senator's finish as a triumph over Clinton's excessive spending in the state.

Trippi's "Edwards>Clinton" point #2 is that Clinton doubleteamed Edwards by bringing President Clinton out to stump for her on his own.

The media's point that Clinton would have rather lost to Edwards than Obama is valid. Obama's win shows that voters (by a sizeable 7% margin here) bought the head to head strategy of Obama over Clinton. That is, dollar for dollar and ad for ad Iowa voters (by a sizeable 7% margin) didn't tire of Obama like they (or so it seems) tired of Clinton.


(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Voters Showing Up

Precinct 22-Des Moines.

Voters are slowly wandering in to a 60's-style lunchroom. For now, two small tables make up the Obama corner, with two for Clinton as well. Richardson and Biden each have one table as well.

9 people in the room with 30 minutes to go.


(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

The Final Hour

Exactly one hour until the doors at caucus locations across Iowa open up.

My home for the next few hours will be at Harding Middle School in Des Moines—Caucus #023-23. Thankfully I'm able to blog from my Blackberry, and will communicate back anything important I see at the caucus.

Following the caucus I will head downtown to experience some post-caucus rallies.

For those of you on the east coast that means no photos until ~11:00 PM.

Enjoy the television coverage!

Ron Paul in the Skies

First it was the Ron Paul Blimp, now it's the skyways above Des Moines. Ron Paul supporters are spread out around the walkways around the city encouraging businessmen and women leaving work to head to caucus for the Texas congressman. I saw proof of the effectiveness of this strategy when one Paul supporter walking the skyway explained the Congressman's positions and convinced a security guard at one of the adjoining corporations to caucus for Ron Paul this evening.

Tonight will be the first test of whether campaign cash equals votes for Ron Paul. If all goes well, expect to see Paul up there near Fred Thompson when the night is over.



(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

"I Like Mike?"

I took a walk from the convention center and ended up across the river at the Embassy Suites where the Huckabee campaign is holding their reception. Problem is, my very nice idea of visiting a caucus before heading over to a reception is in jeopardy. There is only one tiny press riser here at the Huckabee ballroom, not anywhere near enough space for the dozens and dozens of photographers that will likely show up later this evening. If i stayed here and held down my spot I'd be fine, but I'm too restless for that.

Time to find a caucus location and head over. Hopefully there'll be space at someone's reception later.

Get Me Out

I'm getting sick of the Polk County Convention Center. It's here where all those 2,600 credentialed members of the media for the caucus are hiding. The lobby is packed, the Google/YouTube lounge is getting crowded (though the white leather couch I'm on now is very comfortable), and the main media room is churning out dozens of live broadcasts at once.


I just caught word that Senator Joe Biden is in town with an event at 4:30, and with absolutely nothing for someone like me to do that's any fun, I'm itching to escape and find the Senator.

Less than three hours until the caucuses begin and I'm eager to drive to Harding Middle School and see democracy start trickling in the door and filling up the auditorium.


(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

One Word

Authentic.


The best word I can think of to describe John Edwards this morning. Here's a guy who's stayed awake for days, crisscrossing this state on dozens of campaign events spreading a message much more fiercely than he did in 2004: corporate greed, lobbying, unfair tax breaks, and handouts to big business must end.

Where better to show up at 8:00 AM on caucus day than the blue collar neighborhood of east Des Moines. Only blocks away from the event were towering industrial plants and warehouses. Kevin Cooper, a steelworker and supporter of John Edwards, joined fellow union members on stage behind Senator Edwards and held a sign whose simple words sow the true, core strength of Edwards' campaign—the support of union labor.


I've seen Hillary's crowds, the thousands of young supporters and families that show up for Barack Obama, and the smattering of folks that show up for Biden, Richardson, and Dodd, but John Edwards has been the only candidate that has consistently had audiences packed with union laborers and blue collar workers so often talked about in this campaign. As I drove along the winding roads that snaked between smoke stacks, stone quarries, and water treatment plants after Edwards departed I realized the candidate of choice for the working class people of America, and more specifically today in Iowa, means a great deal to me. These are people who are deeply affected when their interests are slighted by our 'corporate-American' government in Washington, and these are people who take offense when a politician doesn't follow through on a promise to help them out.


It's comforting to drive through the industrial areas of Iowa because it's here where America's heart beats. No matter how much voters in New York and Florida complain about not having an influence in selecting the presidential nominees, there's just something about Iowa on caucus day that feels right.

Edwards spoke for barely ten minutes. In and out and onwards. As soon as the Senator left, however, I was surprised that the room didn't empty. Instead, a campaign staffer took to the stage and began arranging the crowd into sections. I realized then that the hundred or so people in attendance were not just onlookers, but volunteers preparing to canvass around the city.


John Edwards comes from a family of laborers and is by far the hardest working candidate on the trail in Iowa. If his support around the state is as strong, passionate, and authentic as the handfuls of canvassers this morning in Des Moines, you better watch Edwards' results start coming in this evening.



(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Nervous? Confident?

I just finished lunch at Des Moines' Raccoon River Brewery. It just so happens that the Clinton camp has a media/high profile supporters/staff setup next door at the Hotel Fort Des Moines.

Before lunch I was exploring the third floor suites at the hotel and ran into a handful of Clinton security and press personnel. A handful of the press people broke off and ended up in the tables around me at the Brewery.

I can't speak on the moods of all the other campaigns headquartered here, but these Clinton staff were 'jittery.' Maybe it was nervousness over Clinton's position in recent polls, or perhaps some sort of adrenaline rush. Either way, drinks were being stirred ferociously and feet were tapping under tables.

It sure wasn't the serene comfort that the Obama team was exhibiting last night, but who knows if that kind of confidence now is a good thing.

Who Shows Up

That's the story here in Iowa: how many of Obama's supporters, mostly young people, will will actually caucus tonight?


If Michael Voynovich's AP Government class from Cincinnati, Ohio is any indication, the Buckeye State might just be Obama Country by tonight. Like the 1,600 students, teachers, and Des Moines supporters that showed up at Hoover High School for Obama's 10:15 PM rally last night, young people are braving the cold to show up for the Senator's events—even from over five hundred miles away.

After attending three large (over a thousand people) rallies for Obama in New Hampshire and Boston in the past few weeks, it becomes pretty clear pretty fast that they're basically all the same. Throw in Oprah, Michelle, or some live music, but the message, right down to the big applause lines stay the same. I used to get goose-bumps whenever U2's City of Blinding Lights played over the cheering crowds as Obama took to the stage, but I've seen it all too many times and I only quietly sing the song while snapping my pictures.


I won't, however, let my recent overexposure to Obama cloud my ability to read the crowds and support he's currently receiving. Hoover High School's gymnasium was packed—students with (actual) hand-made shirts and signs filled the risers all around the room. Two students, Aaron Eckhouse and Steven Conlow, even made and sold Obama t-shirts personalized for the school's students. They, like the majority of students I've spoken with here in Iowa, assured me they'd be caucusing tonight, the best news the Obama campaign could hear.


Maybe, just maybe, Obama's army of young supporters, all 'fired up and ready to go,' will dispel this frightening atmosphere the media loves to bring up about facing your neighbors and standing up for your own candidate. There comes a point where enough young people in one room makes them the majority and the ones able to shape the scene, not the older voters who traditionally dominate the voting process.

As he's been doing at rallies all over Iowa, Obama took a minute out of his speech to ask the crowd to raise their hands if they'd be caucusing tonight. Hardly a hand stayed down. The next question, how many people were caucusing for the first time, and more than a third of the hands went up.


The skepticism dial is being turned way up on the news right now, MSNBC is bringing on guest after guest that questions Obama's possible success, but throughout Iowa the tone is more positive, even through the biting cold. Why? Because when Obama asked his audience last night to raise their hands if they were still undecided with their caucus choice.....well, let's just say that crowd was 'Obama-friendly.'



(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

A Crowded Room and the Comeback Kid

That would be John McCain.

When Tucker Carlson and the rest of the national media personalities (Russert, Mitchell, Stephanopoulos) filed into the conference room of Senator McCain's Urbandale, Iowa HQ he shouted across the room, "You bet I'm about to call the fire marshall about this."


McCain didn't just show up with every recognizable television news personality, he came with Senator John Thune, former presidential candidate Sam Brownback, and South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham. The only surrogate that didn't show up was Tim Pawlenty—a tried and true McCain cheerleader for over a year (and my VP pick should McCain pick up the nomination). Even four of his fellow POWs from Vietnam were there. One of those POWs spoke of McCain's ability to lead, saying, "We've actually seen him under fire." That comment hung over the crowd throughout McCain's extended introduction.


The theme of Senator McCain's campaign here in Iowa is evolving. Though the national media is hammering in the scare tactic strategy evident in one of the Senator's homeland security television ads, McCain's tone on the ground in Iowa is a more moderate one, one of a leader who can protect this country through his ability to work with others and pass crucial legislation. It's a tone that's resonating in Iowa, and one that could propel McCain to a strong third place finish despite his largely passing up campaigning here.


It's the same trend that's taking over New Hampshire. The media, led by pundits quick to make early election predictions, ruled out McCain's campaign this summer after poor fundraising numbers, but it was the media's message that changed, not John McCain's—his message is strong, optimistic, and consistent.



(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Some Insider Insight

A McCain campaign chair, who preferred not to be named, I spoke to last night in Urbandale offered his own prediction on tonight's eventual results—that Mike Huckabee's county-by-county organization in Iowa will pay off tremendously when the votes start being cast.

It's reflective of the mood last night at McCain's rally; the McCain camp would LOVE a Huckabee win here for the shot it would deliver to Romney in New Hampshire.

Outside the Quality Inn

Bill Richardson, visibly exhausted, just walked into the Quality Inn + Suites, Des Moines.

Who woulda thought that a little hotel like this would get any attention?

Off to Edwards and the steelworkers...

The People You Meet

Sen. John Thune (R-SD)


Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)


Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC)


Tucker Carlson

Too Late

Showered and ready for the 3:05 of sleep until it's John Edwards time across the river at 8:15 AM.

Caucus (Early) Morning Predictions

It's 3:00 AM. Early, yes, but there's no stopping in Des Moines.

There's a buzz here in the city—and today doesn't look like it's going to be politics as usual.

So you ask...'who's gonna win?' and 'who's gonna finish where?'

Predicted Democratic Finishes

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton (tie)
2. John Edwards (tie)
3. Joe Biden
4. Bill Richardson
5. Chris Dodd

Predicted Republican Finishes

1. Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3. John McCain
4. Ron Paul
5. Fred Thompson
6. Rudy Giuliani

You bet, 6th place for Rudy. Write off the painful finish because Giuliani has passed on Iowa, but it's still a painful finish that will really hurt the mayor's campaign. Why? Because McCain will finish a VERY CLOSE third today in Iowa, and when he wins New Hampshire you bet February 5th will seem far, far away.

Oh, about that Obama part. The energy in Iowa has one significant flavor to it — youth. Youth means Barack Obama, but it also means voters realigning below the 15% caucus cutoff won't be moving to Hillary Clinton.

Prove me wrong, Iowa.

Photos First, Words Second

John McCain: 8:45-9:45 PM CST



Barack Obama: 10:15-11:15 PM CST




(all photos: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)