Too Late

Showered and ready for the 3:05 of sleep until it's John Edwards time across the river at 8:15 AM.

Caucus (Early) Morning Predictions

It's 3:00 AM. Early, yes, but there's no stopping in Des Moines.

There's a buzz here in the city—and today doesn't look like it's going to be politics as usual.

So you ask...'who's gonna win?' and 'who's gonna finish where?'

Predicted Democratic Finishes

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton (tie)
2. John Edwards (tie)
3. Joe Biden
4. Bill Richardson
5. Chris Dodd

Predicted Republican Finishes

1. Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3. John McCain
4. Ron Paul
5. Fred Thompson
6. Rudy Giuliani

You bet, 6th place for Rudy. Write off the painful finish because Giuliani has passed on Iowa, but it's still a painful finish that will really hurt the mayor's campaign. Why? Because McCain will finish a VERY CLOSE third today in Iowa, and when he wins New Hampshire you bet February 5th will seem far, far away.

Oh, about that Obama part. The energy in Iowa has one significant flavor to it — youth. Youth means Barack Obama, but it also means voters realigning below the 15% caucus cutoff won't be moving to Hillary Clinton.

Prove me wrong, Iowa.

Photos First, Words Second

John McCain: 8:45-9:45 PM CST



Barack Obama: 10:15-11:15 PM CST




(all photos: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Shoulder to Shoulder

Fire codes are certainly being broken. God knows how many people are packed into the conference room at John McCain's Urbandale HQ. The room was at capacity a half hor ago...until Andrea Mitchell and Tim Russert showed up. In fact, Russert and I are shoulder to shoulder right now.

McCain's 15 minutes late by the most recent update and Russert is sweating.

Louder and louder and hotter and hotter, stuck in a corner with photographers and reporters.

Tired.

The Airwaves are Overwhelmed

It's getting annoying.

The radio in the car, television in the hotel room, the tv at the restaurant right now. Entire blocks of advertising are all campaign messages.

Hillary Clinton's, Joe Biden's, Chris Dodd's, and Ron Paul's are the only ads not louder than the murmer from the bar. God bless them.

Off to Urbandale for McCain...

Sticking to the Message of Unbeatable Experience

INDIANOLA, IOWA:

Even with state polls showing hip at only 1%, Senator Chris Dodd sure isn't giving up.

Stopping at Signature's Restaurant this afternoon, Dodd was greeted by nearly a hundred supporters who had gathered in the tiny dining space. By the Senator's side were his wife Jackie, IAFF President Harold Shaitberger, and local Congressmen and Senators from Connecticut.

With eloquence and conviction, Jackie Clegg Dodd highlighted her husband's Senate leadership over the past year despite running a national campaign. Though not explicitly, she criticized Senators Clinton and Obama for skipping key Senate votes and devoting all their time to campaigning, saying, "How can you be an 'agent for change' without standing up for change when it matters." Mrs. Dodd listed off the Senator's achievements this year, specifically filibustering the FISA bill, enacting legislation to combat genocide in Darfur, and for fighting for tighter efficacy testing of pharmaceuticals on children. While candidates like Governor Bill Richardson hold daily "Job Interview" sessions with voters to tout their list of political accomplishmenAFts, few come close to the leadership Dodd has provided in the past year. All in all, Dodd's 2007 resume is tremendous.


The black and gold IAFF endorsement bus that Senator Dodd arrived in is an indication of one of the biggest strengths of his campaign. Having the support of America's firefighters' union represents not only a demographic of nearly 300,000 voters, but adds a weighty level of credibility to his campaign. The IAFF's backing of John Kerry in 2004 may have been rooted in a more sincere belief that Kerry would place among the top of the field than the chances of a Dodd election win, but firefighters have remained behind Dodd since their formal endorsement this past September. Interspersed throughout the Indianola crowd were a handful of t-shirt-wearing firefighters cheering and nodding along with the Senator.

In response to fellow Democratic nominee Dennis Kucinich's second-place backing of Barack Obama in Iowa, in which he urged his supporters to vote for Obama if Kucinich receives under 15% of the vote, Dodd refused to throw his weight behind any other candidates and instead promised he was fighting for the values of his own campaign, not the values of another. As the caucus deals that are struck between campaigns are likely beginning to take shape, Dodd's insistence on not encouraging his supporters to vote for another candidate is a bold move.


The strength of Dodd's campaign rests ultimately in his experience, a point he underscored touchingly by bringing up the issue of Pakistan and the recent assassination of Benazir Bhutto. A few weeks ago while campaigning in Iowa, Dodd said, Benazir Bhutto called him on his cell phone to seek his assistance on the situation of martial law in Pakistan and her own house arrest. Dodd joked that he doubted few other candidates received a call for help from such a high-profile figure, and that George W. Bush laughingly answered that "some general" was the leader of Pakistan during the 2004 campaign. The seriousness of Dodd's comments was immediately felt. Dodd makes hundreds of public statements every year on a wide range of issues, but it's clear from his depth of knowledge on issues, like the threat of nuclear proliferation into dangerous hands, that Dodd really knows what he's talking about. You believe him when he says Pakistan is more a threat to global and national security than Iraq is or ever has been.

It was no surprise that "I Won't Back Down" and Springsteen's "Hungry Heart" played as Dodd left the restaurant; Dodd's in the hunt with the rest of them right down to voting day, sticking to his message and counting on his supporters to stand up for him.


(all photos: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Travel Updates

1:15 am -- SleepNumber setting #20.


12:50 am -- Dominos Pizza arrives at hotel room.

12:05 am -- Joe Biden rally in Indianola being played on C-SPAN.

11:10 pm -- Informed bags didn't make it to Iowa. Supposed to call tomorrow at noon to check in on their status.

10:44 pm -- Arrive Des Moines Iowa International Airport. Both pilots swear incessantly as plane hatch is open and 5 degree Iowa weather rushes in.

9:47 pm -- Sweating. Survived the run from O'Hare terminal H to G. Radio host from Bloomberg Radio is behind me. 20% of this plane (easily) is reporters and supporters here for the Caucus.

7:03 pm -- Flight still delayed. Hoping to make the connection to Des Moines...

6:16 pm -- Laptop's battery dead. Wolf Blitzer on CNN. Tearing off page after page from my yellow pad. Flight "about to board."


5:00 pm -- Boston Logan Intl. Airport. 30 delay on flight to Chicago O'Hare

4:15 pm -- Depart Watertown, MA

12:15 pm -- Arrive Watertown, MA

10:15 am -- Depart Jaffrey, NH for Boston area by car. (Encounter heavy snow in southern New Hampshire)

Before Everything's Lost in the Rush

With a Mobile car mechanic inspecting my car on the way to New Hampshire, I settled down in one of four grease-stained folding chairs inside a stuffy and dark waiting room. A phone in my hand and the tantalizing closeness of a New Hampshire teeming with political excitement on my mind I made the call I had been meaning to make for a long time now.

I recently turned eighteen years old. Often a meaningful birthday for other reasons, I anticipated this milestone for the ability to donate money to a political campaign. Though unintentionally, I had donated money to Mike Huckabee and John McCain by purchasing t-shirts at various functions; now it was time for the real thing.

Opting to speak with someone directly instead of using a generic online or mail form, I 411'd the Washington D.C. headquarters for Senator Chris Dodd's presidential campaign. I held my debit card in my hand and read the number into the phone as quietly as I could. When prompted to chose a donation amount I doubled my intended contribution of $18 to $36.

I realized after the call ended that my contribution probably didn't have any effect on Dodd's campaign; surely his staff on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire have the materials they need for canvassing over the next week, for signs to hold on caucus night and primary day, and I can't see my $36 going towards a new hiring or office opening.


My decision to give to Senator Dodd's campaign was rooted in my belief that my vote, my voice, and my support of the Senator is just as important in his eyes as everyone else's. With Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, the dreams they promise are as far from reality as the high-roller fundraisers they hold are from mainstream America. What the Dodd campaign represents is an America moving away from the stranglehold of foreign oil through bold but realistic initiatives, the return of the rule of law to the executive branch and the protection of the Constitution, and a new era of national service. Not only are Dodd's positions achievable, but they're initiatives already being undertaken by the Senator; from October to mid-December it was Dodd who singlehandedly led the fight against retroactive immunity for the telecom industry on the FISA bill.

After crossing the Massachusetts border into New Hampshire on Saturday, I decided to visit Senator Dodd's Manchester field office to pick up pamphlets on his efforts to introduce new legislation on the Iraq war in Congress this summer. I was greeted by a Dodd volunteer and mentioned to her my recent donation to the campaign, noting my skepticism that offering support so late in the game would be of any use. In the same personal tone that Senator Dodd extended the invitation to join his campaign as a volunteer this June, I was touched by the sincere gratitude my donation was welcomed with at the Manchester office and by the promise that my $36 would in fact be put right into distributing more yard signs throughout New Hampshire.

Surrounded by negative ads, newspaper attacks, and broken promises from our frontrunners, the act of voting and acting on conscious is more fulfilling than betting on the odds of victory and angling for an election win.

On caucus night in Iowa I'll make sure to check in on the festivities for Romney, Huckabee, Clinton and Obama, but at the end of the day I'll stand beside Chris Dodd.

It's Iowa time...let's go.

An Extra Day

I've had plans to cover the Iowa Caucus from Des Moines nailed down for a few weeks now, but I just booked the American Airlines flight to DSM and now I've got an extra day of juicy, freezing cold, Mid-West political coverage.

Boston Logan Airport. New Years Day. The last moment of calm before landing at ground zero.

Making Lists, Checking Them More Than Twice

10 days until Iowa.

There is some last-minute web design work being done to set up an external site for me to post on while in Iowa—should things not work out I'll stay on here and try to integrate in Flickr slide shows and YouTube clips I'm taking in Des Moines as often as I can.

The site has been receiving the usual light stream of visitor traffic, but I'm hoping to get a good following going during the Caucus week, and to continue the momentum on through New Hampshire and most of January. I may advertise myself as the "blogger in New Hampshire," but that doesn't mean I'm stopping after January 8.

It's snowing again in Des Moines—time to find return to the photo store for another big purchase...waterproof camera cover.

It never ends.

Kudos

to GreenMountainPolitics1 for:

1) Saying what needs to be said

and

2) Not backing down


I can't stand Mitt either.

Join the chorus.

There's Nothing Political About...

Stress.


College apps, six Russian cases and declensions, lab reports.

Sometimes serious blogs have to be personal. Hopefully this doesn't turn into a LiveJournal.

Five days until vacation and my life switches into Iowa Caucus mode.

Let's do it.

The Snow Begins to Melt

But I-93 out of Manchester was a beautiful blanket of unplowed snow, and Manchester is hands-down one of America's prettiest winter cities.




(photo credit: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

It's Here.

Obama mania landed in New Hampshire yesterday as Barack, Michelle and Oprah roared in from a swing through Iowa and South Carolina.

I'll pen my thoughts on the rally later, but it was one event I won't forget easily.






(all photos: © 2007 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)

Slavery is Over. Deal.

per CNN

LEXINGTON, South Carolina (CNN) — Eight Confederate flag-waving men protested outside a Fred Thompson campaign stop Wednesday evening, one week after Thompson and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney criticized the Confederate flag during the CNN/YouTube debate in Florida.

Clad in jackets bearing the Confederate flag and holding signs reading "South Carolina hates Fred Thompson" and "Fred Thompson go home," the protesters said Thompson was not a "true southerner."
_____

Not only is supporting the Confederate flag in the year 2007 politically-incorrect, it's about as un-American as you can get. I'd be drop dead terrified if any legitimate presidential candidate polling above 5% was in favor of increasing the use of the Confederate flag. Slavery is over. Deal.

An early voting state + a radical group with (still) a considerable amount of support = not a good filter for presidential candidates.

Pencil Me In

The blog and the POV Magazine will be in the lovely city of Des Moines for the 2008 Iowa Caucus.

When I made the reservation this morning there were only 2 hotel rooms left spread across eleven hotels in the city center. Is the Iowa Caucus going to be the biggest press pack I've ever seen? You bet.

January 2-4, The Quality Inn Des Moines becomes my broadcasting headquarters.



Let the phone calls, road maps, reservations, videotaping, photographing, and interviewing begin.

Momentum

Because I want to be right, I'm cheering the shifting momentum in Iowa.

One month to go. Watch what you say.

CNN: Clinton News Network

Road flares, no injuries, Rochester, NH, no "face of crisis."

Where's the objectivity?

PORTSMOUTH, N.H. (AP) — When the hostages had been released and their alleged captor arrested, a regal-looking Hillary Rodham Clinton strolled out of her Washington home, the picture of calm in the face of crisis.

The image, broadcast just as the network news began, conveyed the message a thousand town hall meetings and campaign commercials strive for — namely, that the Democratic presidential contender can face disorder in a most orderly manner.

FULL STORY

Hands Down

"If they [Republicans] think they're getting into the ring against someone who doesn't know how to punch back, they've got the wrong guy."

THE best speech of the 2008 campaign so far.

Fiery.

That's not a word you hear much these days in the Democratic party.

POV III

Issue 3.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD

John Edwards
Mark McKinnon
The 2008 Primary Season
Dennis Kucinich in Boston
A Dictator for Iraq?
Al Gore and the Nobel Prize
The WGA Strike
Behind the Target Label

We've got you covered.

Enjoy.