If the Obama excitement wasn't evident in Iowa, it is here in Chicago. The plane from Des Moines was packed with Obama volunteers, many of whom would be flying on straight to New Hampshire.
The Obama voters DID turn out last night, and the Obama staffers and volunteers are everywhere too. It's an interesting thing about the Obama campaign. So many people criticize the Clinton camp for its very up-front organizational backbone. Heck, I even got sick of seeing Terry McAuliffe all over the airwaves yesterday. Why Obama does so well with young voters is that they leave Obama himself to do the talking, not countless spokespersons and campaign managers. W hat's clear when you consider the kind of shows Obama puts on all the time is that the Obama campaign IS a machine, it's just one that tries to hide it.
Running a grassroots campaign coordinatesd from the top down isn't easy to do, but Obama's doing it....well.
Friday, January 4, 2008
"A Messenger of Determination"
I can only imagine what would have happened if John Edwards had given this speech to Barack Obama's young and cheering crowd at Hoover High School two nights ago.
According to CNN's extensive entrance polling for last night's Iowa Caucus, 52% of voters made up their mind based on which candidate they thought could "bring about change." Of that group, 51% chose Barack Obama; Clinton and Edwards pulled 22% and 20% from that crowed respectively.
As I went to sleep last night I wondered if the Iowa Caucus changed my opinions about Barack Obama. Specifically, after a (big) win for Obama here it looks like he's going to have tremendous, perhaps unstoppable, momentum going into New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Because of the secret ballot format of Iowa Republicans in the caucus process, candidates like Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and Fred Thompson are still able to continue campaigning after mixed to poor results last night. On the Democratic side, candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Chris Dodd pulled only 3% of the vote last night despite having a 16% share of the Iowa vote in polls before the caucus. The unfortunate result of the Iowa preference squeeze is the withdrawal of Dodd and Biden, as well as what seems a deathblow to Richardson's campaign.
What Edwards did last night in his post-caucus speech was to redefine his campaign—recommitting himself to working class Americans, providing an unparalleled health care system for all, and fighting to end corporate greed and abuse. They were points he's made for months, but Edwards delivered a ten minute confirmation of purpose for both his campaign and his life, and did more than tout his will to 'change,' he touched the crowd by laying out specifics about the problems that he saw and what he wanted to change.
What besides his frequent mentioning of the word makes Obama any more capable of being an agent for change? Doesn't Edwards have the conviction, the personal and political experience, and the unsurpassed proposals for economic and social change in America?.
You decide.
(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
According to CNN's extensive entrance polling for last night's Iowa Caucus, 52% of voters made up their mind based on which candidate they thought could "bring about change." Of that group, 51% chose Barack Obama; Clinton and Edwards pulled 22% and 20% from that crowed respectively.
As I went to sleep last night I wondered if the Iowa Caucus changed my opinions about Barack Obama. Specifically, after a (big) win for Obama here it looks like he's going to have tremendous, perhaps unstoppable, momentum going into New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Because of the secret ballot format of Iowa Republicans in the caucus process, candidates like Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and Fred Thompson are still able to continue campaigning after mixed to poor results last night. On the Democratic side, candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Chris Dodd pulled only 3% of the vote last night despite having a 16% share of the Iowa vote in polls before the caucus. The unfortunate result of the Iowa preference squeeze is the withdrawal of Dodd and Biden, as well as what seems a deathblow to Richardson's campaign.
What Edwards did last night in his post-caucus speech was to redefine his campaign—recommitting himself to working class Americans, providing an unparalleled health care system for all, and fighting to end corporate greed and abuse. They were points he's made for months, but Edwards delivered a ten minute confirmation of purpose for both his campaign and his life, and did more than tout his will to 'change,' he touched the crowd by laying out specifics about the problems that he saw and what he wanted to change.
What besides his frequent mentioning of the word makes Obama any more capable of being an agent for change? Doesn't Edwards have the conviction, the personal and political experience, and the unsurpassed proposals for economic and social change in America?.
You decide.
(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
Grace and Strength
...and the patience and generosity to hang around and meet with supporters after Senator Edwards left the room for his interviews.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Continuing a Different Fight
The Dodd bus rolls back to Washington—where the Senator will go back to fighting for the things his campaign has been about since the beginning.
My hat goes off Dodd for a campaign of civility, leadership, and courage.
(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
My hat goes off Dodd for a campaign of civility, leadership, and courage.
(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
The Bar at the Renaissance Hotel
Ordering takeout and getting ready for the ride to the hotel and a night of photos (with a FANTASTIC set of Senator Edwards tonight) and writing.
There should still be a crowd at the Richardson setup at the lovely Quality Inn, and I'm anxious to see what moves that campaign makes tonight after a 2% finish.
There should still be a crowd at the Richardson setup at the lovely Quality Inn, and I'm anxious to see what moves that campaign makes tonight after a 2% finish.
At Edwards HQ
Over the past ten minutes the main ballroom at John Edwards' Des Moines campaign reception complex has filled up. Sam Adams in hand, the mood here is mixed, yet propelled by Edwards campaign manager, Joe Trippi, who is spinning the Senator's finish as a triumph over Clinton's excessive spending in the state.
Trippi's "Edwards>Clinton" point #2 is that Clinton doubleteamed Edwards by bringing President Clinton out to stump for her on his own.
The media's point that Clinton would have rather lost to Edwards than Obama is valid. Obama's win shows that voters (by a sizeable 7% margin here) bought the head to head strategy of Obama over Clinton. That is, dollar for dollar and ad for ad Iowa voters (by a sizeable 7% margin) didn't tire of Obama like they (or so it seems) tired of Clinton.
(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
Credentialed? Yep!
With a little muscle flexing I'm into Edwards HQ.
Wolf Blitzer just announced the Obama win.
Pretty silent room here.
Wolf Blitzer just announced the Obama win.
Pretty silent room here.
What I Saw at Pricinct 22
When I get back to the hotel late tonight I will put up some pictures and a nice long post, but for now I'm going to rush over some results from my Des Moines vote. These Des Moines numbers are the ones the news is not reporting now, which makes this all the more cool.
Obama - 36
Clinton - 29
Edwards - 19
Richardson - 17
Hillary is tied for second statewide currently, and if precinct 22 is any indication, Des Moines might not push her over Obama.
Updates soon from the city.
Obama - 36
Clinton - 29
Edwards - 19
Richardson - 17
Hillary is tied for second statewide currently, and if precinct 22 is any indication, Des Moines might not push her over Obama.
Updates soon from the city.
Voters Showing Up
Precinct 22-Des Moines.
Voters are slowly wandering in to a 60's-style lunchroom. For now, two small tables make up the Obama corner, with two for Clinton as well. Richardson and Biden each have one table as well.
9 people in the room with 30 minutes to go.
(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
The Final Hour
Exactly one hour until the doors at caucus locations across Iowa open up.
My home for the next few hours will be at Harding Middle School in Des Moines—Caucus #023-23. Thankfully I'm able to blog from my Blackberry, and will communicate back anything important I see at the caucus.
Following the caucus I will head downtown to experience some post-caucus rallies.
For those of you on the east coast that means no photos until ~11:00 PM.
Enjoy the television coverage!
My home for the next few hours will be at Harding Middle School in Des Moines—Caucus #023-23. Thankfully I'm able to blog from my Blackberry, and will communicate back anything important I see at the caucus.
Following the caucus I will head downtown to experience some post-caucus rallies.
For those of you on the east coast that means no photos until ~11:00 PM.
Enjoy the television coverage!
Ron Paul in the Skies
First it was the Ron Paul Blimp, now it's the skyways above Des Moines. Ron Paul supporters are spread out around the walkways around the city encouraging businessmen and women leaving work to head to caucus for the Texas congressman. I saw proof of the effectiveness of this strategy when one Paul supporter walking the skyway explained the Congressman's positions and convinced a security guard at one of the adjoining corporations to caucus for Ron Paul this evening.
Tonight will be the first test of whether campaign cash equals votes for Ron Paul. If all goes well, expect to see Paul up there near Fred Thompson when the night is over.
(photo credit: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
"I Like Mike?"
I took a walk from the convention center and ended up across the river at the Embassy Suites where the Huckabee campaign is holding their reception. Problem is, my very nice idea of visiting a caucus before heading over to a reception is in jeopardy. There is only one tiny press riser here at the Huckabee ballroom, not anywhere near enough space for the dozens and dozens of photographers that will likely show up later this evening. If i stayed here and held down my spot I'd be fine, but I'm too restless for that.
Time to find a caucus location and head over. Hopefully there'll be space at someone's reception later.
Get Me Out
I'm getting sick of the Polk County Convention Center. It's here where all those 2,600 credentialed members of the media for the caucus are hiding. The lobby is packed, the Google/YouTube lounge is getting crowded (though the white leather couch I'm on now is very comfortable), and the main media room is churning out dozens of live broadcasts at once.
I just caught word that Senator Joe Biden is in town with an event at 4:30, and with absolutely nothing for someone like me to do that's any fun, I'm itching to escape and find the Senator.
Less than three hours until the caucuses begin and I'm eager to drive to Harding Middle School and see democracy start trickling in the door and filling up the auditorium.
(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
One Word
Authentic.
The best word I can think of to describe John Edwards this morning. Here's a guy who's stayed awake for days, crisscrossing this state on dozens of campaign events spreading a message much more fiercely than he did in 2004: corporate greed, lobbying, unfair tax breaks, and handouts to big business must end.
Where better to show up at 8:00 AM on caucus day than the blue collar neighborhood of east Des Moines. Only blocks away from the event were towering industrial plants and warehouses. Kevin Cooper, a steelworker and supporter of John Edwards, joined fellow union members on stage behind Senator Edwards and held a sign whose simple words sow the true, core strength of Edwards' campaign—the support of union labor.
I've seen Hillary's crowds, the thousands of young supporters and families that show up for Barack Obama, and the smattering of folks that show up for Biden, Richardson, and Dodd, but John Edwards has been the only candidate that has consistently had audiences packed with union laborers and blue collar workers so often talked about in this campaign. As I drove along the winding roads that snaked between smoke stacks, stone quarries, and water treatment plants after Edwards departed I realized the candidate of choice for the working class people of America, and more specifically today in Iowa, means a great deal to me. These are people who are deeply affected when their interests are slighted by our 'corporate-American' government in Washington, and these are people who take offense when a politician doesn't follow through on a promise to help them out.
It's comforting to drive through the industrial areas of Iowa because it's here where America's heart beats. No matter how much voters in New York and Florida complain about not having an influence in selecting the presidential nominees, there's just something about Iowa on caucus day that feels right.
Edwards spoke for barely ten minutes. In and out and onwards. As soon as the Senator left, however, I was surprised that the room didn't empty. Instead, a campaign staffer took to the stage and began arranging the crowd into sections. I realized then that the hundred or so people in attendance were not just onlookers, but volunteers preparing to canvass around the city.
John Edwards comes from a family of laborers and is by far the hardest working candidate on the trail in Iowa. If his support around the state is as strong, passionate, and authentic as the handfuls of canvassers this morning in Des Moines, you better watch Edwards' results start coming in this evening.
(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
The best word I can think of to describe John Edwards this morning. Here's a guy who's stayed awake for days, crisscrossing this state on dozens of campaign events spreading a message much more fiercely than he did in 2004: corporate greed, lobbying, unfair tax breaks, and handouts to big business must end.
Where better to show up at 8:00 AM on caucus day than the blue collar neighborhood of east Des Moines. Only blocks away from the event were towering industrial plants and warehouses. Kevin Cooper, a steelworker and supporter of John Edwards, joined fellow union members on stage behind Senator Edwards and held a sign whose simple words sow the true, core strength of Edwards' campaign—the support of union labor.
I've seen Hillary's crowds, the thousands of young supporters and families that show up for Barack Obama, and the smattering of folks that show up for Biden, Richardson, and Dodd, but John Edwards has been the only candidate that has consistently had audiences packed with union laborers and blue collar workers so often talked about in this campaign. As I drove along the winding roads that snaked between smoke stacks, stone quarries, and water treatment plants after Edwards departed I realized the candidate of choice for the working class people of America, and more specifically today in Iowa, means a great deal to me. These are people who are deeply affected when their interests are slighted by our 'corporate-American' government in Washington, and these are people who take offense when a politician doesn't follow through on a promise to help them out.
It's comforting to drive through the industrial areas of Iowa because it's here where America's heart beats. No matter how much voters in New York and Florida complain about not having an influence in selecting the presidential nominees, there's just something about Iowa on caucus day that feels right.
Edwards spoke for barely ten minutes. In and out and onwards. As soon as the Senator left, however, I was surprised that the room didn't empty. Instead, a campaign staffer took to the stage and began arranging the crowd into sections. I realized then that the hundred or so people in attendance were not just onlookers, but volunteers preparing to canvass around the city.
John Edwards comes from a family of laborers and is by far the hardest working candidate on the trail in Iowa. If his support around the state is as strong, passionate, and authentic as the handfuls of canvassers this morning in Des Moines, you better watch Edwards' results start coming in this evening.
(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
Nervous? Confident?
I just finished lunch at Des Moines' Raccoon River Brewery. It just so happens that the Clinton camp has a media/high profile supporters/staff setup next door at the Hotel Fort Des Moines.
Before lunch I was exploring the third floor suites at the hotel and ran into a handful of Clinton security and press personnel. A handful of the press people broke off and ended up in the tables around me at the Brewery.
I can't speak on the moods of all the other campaigns headquartered here, but these Clinton staff were 'jittery.' Maybe it was nervousness over Clinton's position in recent polls, or perhaps some sort of adrenaline rush. Either way, drinks were being stirred ferociously and feet were tapping under tables.
It sure wasn't the serene comfort that the Obama team was exhibiting last night, but who knows if that kind of confidence now is a good thing.
Before lunch I was exploring the third floor suites at the hotel and ran into a handful of Clinton security and press personnel. A handful of the press people broke off and ended up in the tables around me at the Brewery.
I can't speak on the moods of all the other campaigns headquartered here, but these Clinton staff were 'jittery.' Maybe it was nervousness over Clinton's position in recent polls, or perhaps some sort of adrenaline rush. Either way, drinks were being stirred ferociously and feet were tapping under tables.
It sure wasn't the serene comfort that the Obama team was exhibiting last night, but who knows if that kind of confidence now is a good thing.
Who Shows Up
That's the story here in Iowa: how many of Obama's supporters, mostly young people, will will actually caucus tonight?
If Michael Voynovich's AP Government class from Cincinnati, Ohio is any indication, the Buckeye State might just be Obama Country by tonight. Like the 1,600 students, teachers, and Des Moines supporters that showed up at Hoover High School for Obama's 10:15 PM rally last night, young people are braving the cold to show up for the Senator's events—even from over five hundred miles away.
After attending three large (over a thousand people) rallies for Obama in New Hampshire and Boston in the past few weeks, it becomes pretty clear pretty fast that they're basically all the same. Throw in Oprah, Michelle, or some live music, but the message, right down to the big applause lines stay the same. I used to get goose-bumps whenever U2's City of Blinding Lights played over the cheering crowds as Obama took to the stage, but I've seen it all too many times and I only quietly sing the song while snapping my pictures.
I won't, however, let my recent overexposure to Obama cloud my ability to read the crowds and support he's currently receiving. Hoover High School's gymnasium was packed—students with (actual) hand-made shirts and signs filled the risers all around the room. Two students, Aaron Eckhouse and Steven Conlow, even made and sold Obama t-shirts personalized for the school's students. They, like the majority of students I've spoken with here in Iowa, assured me they'd be caucusing tonight, the best news the Obama campaign could hear.
Maybe, just maybe, Obama's army of young supporters, all 'fired up and ready to go,' will dispel this frightening atmosphere the media loves to bring up about facing your neighbors and standing up for your own candidate. There comes a point where enough young people in one room makes them the majority and the ones able to shape the scene, not the older voters who traditionally dominate the voting process.
As he's been doing at rallies all over Iowa, Obama took a minute out of his speech to ask the crowd to raise their hands if they'd be caucusing tonight. Hardly a hand stayed down. The next question, how many people were caucusing for the first time, and more than a third of the hands went up.
The skepticism dial is being turned way up on the news right now, MSNBC is bringing on guest after guest that questions Obama's possible success, but throughout Iowa the tone is more positive, even through the biting cold. Why? Because when Obama asked his audience last night to raise their hands if they were still undecided with their caucus choice.....well, let's just say that crowd was 'Obama-friendly.'
(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
If Michael Voynovich's AP Government class from Cincinnati, Ohio is any indication, the Buckeye State might just be Obama Country by tonight. Like the 1,600 students, teachers, and Des Moines supporters that showed up at Hoover High School for Obama's 10:15 PM rally last night, young people are braving the cold to show up for the Senator's events—even from over five hundred miles away.
After attending three large (over a thousand people) rallies for Obama in New Hampshire and Boston in the past few weeks, it becomes pretty clear pretty fast that they're basically all the same. Throw in Oprah, Michelle, or some live music, but the message, right down to the big applause lines stay the same. I used to get goose-bumps whenever U2's City of Blinding Lights played over the cheering crowds as Obama took to the stage, but I've seen it all too many times and I only quietly sing the song while snapping my pictures.
I won't, however, let my recent overexposure to Obama cloud my ability to read the crowds and support he's currently receiving. Hoover High School's gymnasium was packed—students with (actual) hand-made shirts and signs filled the risers all around the room. Two students, Aaron Eckhouse and Steven Conlow, even made and sold Obama t-shirts personalized for the school's students. They, like the majority of students I've spoken with here in Iowa, assured me they'd be caucusing tonight, the best news the Obama campaign could hear.
Maybe, just maybe, Obama's army of young supporters, all 'fired up and ready to go,' will dispel this frightening atmosphere the media loves to bring up about facing your neighbors and standing up for your own candidate. There comes a point where enough young people in one room makes them the majority and the ones able to shape the scene, not the older voters who traditionally dominate the voting process.
As he's been doing at rallies all over Iowa, Obama took a minute out of his speech to ask the crowd to raise their hands if they'd be caucusing tonight. Hardly a hand stayed down. The next question, how many people were caucusing for the first time, and more than a third of the hands went up.
The skepticism dial is being turned way up on the news right now, MSNBC is bringing on guest after guest that questions Obama's possible success, but throughout Iowa the tone is more positive, even through the biting cold. Why? Because when Obama asked his audience last night to raise their hands if they were still undecided with their caucus choice.....well, let's just say that crowd was 'Obama-friendly.'
(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
A Crowded Room and the Comeback Kid
That would be John McCain.
When Tucker Carlson and the rest of the national media personalities (Russert, Mitchell, Stephanopoulos) filed into the conference room of Senator McCain's Urbandale, Iowa HQ he shouted across the room, "You bet I'm about to call the fire marshall about this."
McCain didn't just show up with every recognizable television news personality, he came with Senator John Thune, former presidential candidate Sam Brownback, and South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham. The only surrogate that didn't show up was Tim Pawlenty—a tried and true McCain cheerleader for over a year (and my VP pick should McCain pick up the nomination). Even four of his fellow POWs from Vietnam were there. One of those POWs spoke of McCain's ability to lead, saying, "We've actually seen him under fire." That comment hung over the crowd throughout McCain's extended introduction.
The theme of Senator McCain's campaign here in Iowa is evolving. Though the national media is hammering in the scare tactic strategy evident in one of the Senator's homeland security television ads, McCain's tone on the ground in Iowa is a more moderate one, one of a leader who can protect this country through his ability to work with others and pass crucial legislation. It's a tone that's resonating in Iowa, and one that could propel McCain to a strong third place finish despite his largely passing up campaigning here.
It's the same trend that's taking over New Hampshire. The media, led by pundits quick to make early election predictions, ruled out McCain's campaign this summer after poor fundraising numbers, but it was the media's message that changed, not John McCain's—his message is strong, optimistic, and consistent.
(all photos: © 2008 by Luke N. Vargas. All Rights Reserved.)
Some Insider Insight
A McCain campaign chair, who preferred not to be named, I spoke to last night in Urbandale offered his own prediction on tonight's eventual results—that Mike Huckabee's county-by-county organization in Iowa will pay off tremendously when the votes start being cast.
It's reflective of the mood last night at McCain's rally; the McCain camp would LOVE a Huckabee win here for the shot it would deliver to Romney in New Hampshire.
It's reflective of the mood last night at McCain's rally; the McCain camp would LOVE a Huckabee win here for the shot it would deliver to Romney in New Hampshire.
Outside the Quality Inn
Bill Richardson, visibly exhausted, just walked into the Quality Inn + Suites, Des Moines.
Who woulda thought that a little hotel like this would get any attention?
Off to Edwards and the steelworkers...
Who woulda thought that a little hotel like this would get any attention?
Off to Edwards and the steelworkers...
The People You Meet
Sen. John Thune (R-SD)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC)
Tucker Carlson
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC)
Tucker Carlson
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