Vargas for President 2040

Moving Blogs

2008-08-25T14:00:00.003-04:00

Vargas2040 is now "The Political Courier."

Click HERE to visit the new site!

www.politicalcourier.com

Below please find the archives of my political coverage from March to August, 2007.

Highlights include:

—Unity, NH (the first joint campaign event for Clinton and Obama)
—A GOP Primary Debate
—The Oprah/Obama NH rally
—The Iowa Caucuses
– Precinct 22
—John McCain in Maine (with Senators Snowe and Collins)

—Seeing Hillary in Indiana
—The Pennsylvania Primary
—Interviewing John Edwards
—Hearing Mike Huckabee play rock n' roll
—Meeting Dodd, Huckabee, Biden, McCain, Kucinich, Richardson, Romney, Gravel, Edwards, Duncan Hunter, Tancredo, Brownback, and Giuliani

NH Schedule

2008-08-25T11:01:00.000-04:00

I'm off for a few days in New Hampshire interviewing voters around the state to gauge Obama's support leading up to his convention acceptance on Thursday.

I am planning trips to Keane, Manchester, and Peterborough to survey young voters before attending a Manchester "convention watch party" on the 28th.

Not So Fast

2008-08-25T00:01:00.000-04:00

I mobilized very quickly Sunday night to try and arrange airfare, hotels, rental cars for a last-minute trip to the DNC in Denver. Though I won't rule out the possibility of somehow ending up at Invesco Field on Thursday night, I'm holding off on the trip for now.

Why?

Because the main reason to travel out to Denver would be to "say I was there," and looking back, I've been fortunate enough to be able to say I was at a lot of the big moments of the '08 campaign already, and have had countless memorable experiences:

—Unity, NH
—A GOP Primary Debate
—The Oprah/Obama rallies
—The Iowa Caucuses
—Seeing Hillary in Indiana
—The Pennsylvania Primary
—Interviewing John Edwards
—Hearing Mike Huckabee play rock n' roll
—Meeting Dodd, Huckabee, Biden, McCain, Kucinich, Richardson, Romney, Gravel, Edwards, Duncan Hunter, Tancredo, Brownback, and Giuliani

I'm sure I could walk out of Denver with some good photos and stories, but the best stories from the election aren't always where everyone else is looking, and EVERYONE is staring straight at Denver this week.

Enjoy some good old Granite State political coverage the next few days!

Framing This Soon

2008-08-23T10:09:00.001-04:00

An already great photo takes on some new importance.

Make it (99.9%) Official

2008-08-22T23:22:00.003-04:00

There's a damn good chance Senator Joseph Biden will be the Vice President of the United States in January, 2009.

Hallelujah.

Biden may have been one of a few great candidates on Obama's "shortlist," but there are precious few statesmen like Biden left in politics, and Obama is lucky to have him on the ticket.

...though we agree with the comment left by "Eli" (likely an Evan Bayh supporter) on NBC New's online forum:

Suffice to say Obama will not win Indiana now no matter how many offices he opens there.

If...Then

2008-08-22T22:04:00.006-04:00

If Andrea Mitchell is correct that Evan Bayh and Tim Kaine are out of contention for the VP spot, I have only one thing to say:

I'VE LOVED JOE BIDEN FOR A LONG TIME (click HERE)

...which is not to say that I won the VP prediction contest by any means. Rather, that it pays off to see all the presidential candidates during the primary season and see who impresses you the most; if they're a downright impressive candidate and they don't end up winning the nomination, put them on VP watch...

An Inspiring Vision for the Future

2008-08-21T22:35:00.000-04:00

Even if it's an ad by a company that made its money "Killing the Electric Car" in the 1990's...

Cross your fingers for a future of electric, solar, fuel cell, etc. cars.

An awesome TV spot.

Good work, GM's advertising division.

An Unimportant State?

2008-08-20T12:38:00.005-04:00

Think again.

If you need another reason to pick Evan Bayh, it's because with Indiana switching back to Republican control in recent polls, the electoral map looks way too close for a "landslide" candidate like Obama who's supposed to turn all those red states into blue states.

"Backstage with Barack": Some Darn Good Fundraising

2008-08-19T17:47:00.003-04:00

It's a pretty simple concept.

If you give $5 or more to the Obama campaign, your name is entered into a drawing to spend some time with Obama before he goes on stage to accept the Democratic nomination.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems very unlikely that a politician about to give the biggest speech of his life would enjoy being bothered by ten strangers and their guests. Just think what would happen if the campaign actually randomly selected the winners and ended up with a bunch of ex-Hillary supporters that didn't really love Obama but wanted to give him a few bucks anyway to win in November.

Not very good publicity there, right?

I can't say I'm at all surprised by the ten guests that will be with Obama in Denver (the list was released yesterday). Here are some good ones:

A teacher from a small Montana farming village.

An evangelical grandfather and ex-MIKE HUCKABEE supporter from a swing state.

A female college student from Alaska who is "interviewing native elders about their experiences with segregation" for summer break.

And Trinance, "a single mother and disabled veteran who served overseas for the Iraq War."

My apologies to the many thousands who donated money hoping to win and were instead overlooked as the Obama campaign hunted for some "lucky winners" with relevant and juicy stories.

...as the Obama campaign laughs all the way to the bank...

Obama in Europe: Nowhere to Hide

2008-08-17T11:30:00.026-04:00

Ignoring how effective the Obama campaign's voter registration drive is, it's starting to be a wee bit irritating.

Yes, those are Obama signs at Rome's Piazza Navona.

"Americans in Italy for Obama" are some nice folks, and registration drives for Americans Abroad in Europe says a lot about the strength of Obama's worldwide strength.

Really. Impressive.

...even if vacations better without campaign '08 sneaking in...

Returning

2008-08-15T07:58:00.000-04:00

It's hasta luego to Barcelona as I begin my return to the U.S. after quite a long and lovely time in Europe.

Rest assured I have been keeping up with polls and the latest election news to avoid any surprises when I open up the papers back home.

P.S. Will John and Elizabeth Edwards still appear together in September at the speech they were supposed to give (and I had been planning to attend)?!?

Insulting

2008-08-09T05:38:00.004-04:00

Photo: Luke N. Vargas.

I remember lingering around a half-empty ballroom at a Des Moines hotel this past January after John Edwards left the stage and many of his supporters had filed out of the room. It was obvious that Edwards' second place finish would damage his chances of winning future states and becoming the Democratic nominee, but I felt like I had witnessed an amazing moment in election history. For someone who's listened to every candidate's stump speech numerous times, I felt like Edwards had broken from the mold and was speaking fromt the heart.

As the Democratic field narrowed down to Obama, Clinton, and Edwards through January, it seemed only a matter of time before Edwards would have to drop out, but I still loved seeing him on debate stages and delivering his talking points on television. Up until yesterday I wished Edwards had been the nominee instead of Obama; I thought he had a better chance of winning this November.

Now, after meeting Edwards twice (once privately for an interview), publicly voicing my support for him, and arguing on his behalf to friends and colleagues, I can't help but feel outraged that Edwards would hide such important information for so long.

As every Democrat is aware, the most important criteria in choosing a nominee for the party this year is electability--finding someone who can beat John McCain and put a Democrat back in the White House. That a major presidential candidate would withold a scandal (while maintaining innocence and touting his amazing family values) that would have destroyed his campaign and elected John McCain overnight, shows John Edwards' true motives: being elected President was more important for him than having a Democrat elected in 2008.

I (still) love Edwards' 2004 and 2008 political platforms, but he will never be the same in my eyes.

A Conversation Between Barack and Michelle

2008-08-07T09:00:00.001-04:00

Back in 2006 I bought a "Bayh 2008" button on CafePress.com. I wore the button around, put up an Evan Bayh picture as the background on my laptop, and tried to get people to ask for more information about him.

I dug through his Senate homepage and soon was able to list his accomplishments for the state of Indiana in conversation. Though Bayh ended his campaign long before many other candidates officially announced their own, Bayh's record, lasting popularity as a Democrat in Indiana (then considered deeply Republican), and the son of the remarkable Birch Bayh, made it impossible for me to forget his name and prospects for an executive position in the future.

Fast forward to April, 2008 and I'm crouching down 5 feet in front of Evan Bayh to take photos of him and Hillary Clinton and a campaign stop in Valparaiso, Indiana. I finally felt like the perfect Democratic presidential ticket had descended down right in front of me.

Hillary Clinton may be out of the picture now, but Bayh certainly isn't as a prospective Vice-President for Barack Obama.

Bayh and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine look to be the top contenders in this year's "veepstates," especially as the two campaigned with Barack and Michelle respectively yesterday and today.

Just imagine the conversation Michelle Obama will have with Barack over the next few days. Each will share their experiences about the two candidates and, together with their advisors, work towards an official decision.

As one of the most exciting events of a presidential election--not only because it serves as a candidate's "first Presidential decision," but because 90% of each party's voters have to deal with another high-profile politician until the election whether they like them or not--I would love to hear what Barack and Michelle have to say about Evan Bayh and Tim Kaine.

...and hopefully they like Evan the most...

Getting Past the Euro

2008-08-04T17:23:00.001-04:00

Once you get past the terrible exchange rate, Europe is still tremendously exciting to travel through.

Menton, Venice, and now Florence; from the French waterfront to the art capitol of the world.

No political posts from me for now, but I have a guest post lined up for next week.

A Two Week Break

2008-07-28T11:00:00.002-04:00

I am about to depart on a two week vacation overseas and let news of the U.S. election trickle over to me by way of foreign newspapers and café conversations.

Expect a few photos over the next 16 days or so, but VERY infrequent postings.

Au revoir!

Two Weeks...

2008-07-26T23:49:00.004-04:00

...til I can rock out to this in Barcelona...

Bring it on.

CNN Piles it On

2008-07-25T15:17:00.002-04:00

After Obama left the stage in Berlin, CNN aired the following segments as their "equal time" of coverage for McCain:

1) Mitt Romney's ex-communication's guy getting ripped to shreds by two angry Obama supporters as Ben Stein tries to chirp in and defend McCain.

2) McCain holds a press conference about foreign policy in front of deli cheeses.

Panoramic Experimenting

2008-07-25T14:54:00.003-04:00

Click to enlarge.

Where McCain Can (and is) Going Wrong

2008-07-23T12:29:00.001-04:00

How will history remember Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign?

To start, a lot of people didn't start appreciating her until she had practically lost the nomination to Barack Obama.

Though Clinton came across as "cold" and "impersonal," she could give a great speech, bring a crowd to its feet, handle a tough question, and make meaningful connections with those around her. Under the shadow of Obama, however, none of that seemed to matter. To the media and a large group of Democrats, Hillary was merely playing an old type of politics—one that went after Obama and didn't always play nice.

As an ex-Clinton supporter and (though not as a result of Clinton's defeat) a proud fan of John McCain, I see his campaign slowly falling into the traps that sealed Hillary's fate.

For one, McCain's campaign never seems to bring a story or issue to the media or change the dialogue of the campaign. Instead, McCain spends his time in the public spotlight giving good speeches about things that don't surprise us. I could have predicted McCain would talk about his two favorite issues—energy independence and Iraq—in Portland, ME on Monday, much the same way it was no surprise Hillary Clinton gave a very obvious speech about rebuilding America's infrastructure after the Minneapolis bridge collapse last August.

The thing is, both speeches were extremely intelligent, effective, and well-received, but they were delivered in front of small audiences at times when they'd attract little attention. That sounds like where McCain's finding himself right now.

When he should be focusing on creating publicity around his own campaign, McCain has spent most of his time going after Obama. Whether it's criticizing his foreign policy experience, his "anti-troops" remarks, or the media's love affair with him (though this actually does exist), McCain and the GOP are all about Obama. Check out the RNC's homepage this morning:

In 2000 and 2004 the Republicans always seemed to be on message and didn't resort to these silly little jokes about their Democratic opponenets; their attacks used to be mean, serious, and effective. Now, the RNC homepage is little more than a parody of itself.

During his speech in Portland on Monday, McCain repeatedly brought up Barack Obama—how he should of condemned MoveOn.org's "General Betray-us" ad and that he lacked judgment in not supporting the surge in Iraq. Meanwhile, Obama travels the world speaking to presidents and diplomats about issues "larger" than partisan politics.

Whether or not Obama really does transcend party politics is up in the air, but McCain would be wise to get off Obama's case for a while and make a case of his own.

Little More Than "On Message"

2008-07-22T20:44:00.000-04:00

PORTLAND, ME. John McCain;s "public event" in Portland yesterday was unlike any campaign stop I've covered. Part red and white checkered picnic tables and part jacket and tie affair, I was expecting to find a more sober scene outside the Maine Military Museum. It's common knowledge that the McCain campaign has been looking for ways of taking the media attention off of Barack Obama's trip to the Europe and the Middle East, but I was expecting a more spirited attempt from his schedulers.

To start, visiting Maine was an interesting choice by McCain. Though McCain could pass off the appearance as an opportunity to throw his weight behind Maine's freshman Senator, Susan Collins, who is up for re-election this year, she already leads her Democratic opponent up to 25% in recent polls. John McCain also faces a steep uphill battle in Maine against Barack Obama; the state has voted Democratic in five consecutive presidential elections, and that trend seems unlikely to change in a year Obama is making inroads in a handful of traditional Republican strongholds.

The McCain campaign likely chose the Maine Military Museum to surround their candidate with veterans and an audience that respects McCain's foreign policy credentials. McCain didn't hesitate to draw distinctions between McCain's military experience and Obama's perceived inexperience and decision to travel abroad to improve his international reputation.

"I'd rather be here at the Maine Military Museum than anywhere else in the world," McCain opened his remarks. Focusing on two issues of national security—America's dependence on foreign oil and the War on Terror—McCain worked to show that Obama's stances on critical issues fail to take into consideration larger policy implications.

Finally, after asking the veterans in the crowd to identify themselves (about one in four raised their hands), McCain vocalized his support for the current strategy in Iraq and General David Petraeus. Obama, McCain said, refused to condemn MoveOn.org's "General Betray-us" advertisement last year. The crowd booed Obama and cheered for McCain, but it was far from the rousing moment McCain would need to overshadow Obama.

McCain is the more experienced candidate, especially on issue of national security and foreign policy, but he'll need more than patriotic picnics and friendly crowds to chip away at Obama's momentum.

Get Me Out of Here

2008-07-20T12:43:00.002-04:00

I've been holed up in the attic editing videos all week, and while clips load and transitions render I've been surfing around YouTube and RealClearPolitics, reading and watching whatever I find.

As a result of working for VoteGopher.com, a website that compares the presidential candidates on the issues, I have learned a great deal about John McCain and Barack Obama on policies that matter a lot to me. Using VoteGopher's "My Ballot" feature and opting not to put unduly high emphasis on "Message" or "Controversies," my results came out to be a tie—22 points for McCain, 22 points for Obama.

To be honest, I was floored by those results. Back in June I took a similar candidate quiz and, though by a small margin, favored Obama. After spending hours and hours editing 25 videos comparing Obama and McCain head-to-head, things are getting a lot closer in my mind.

After hearing McCain and Obama talk about terrorism, Iraq, and Afghanistan on the campaign trail countless times, I no longer see Obama's move to pull out of Iraq immediately as a good thing, and after reading this today I wonder if Obama's foreign policy plans aren't based on some popular assumptions about Afghanistan as "the right war."

Now that I've sorted through position videos and papers about the two candidates' positions on education, I wonder if McCain is really leading the way by proposing to move towards the use of vouchers. This article makes it seem as if Obama's plan is a little "old school" in an un-Obama kind of way.

And on energy, I'm not convinced that we shouldn't explore options for certain domestic oil drilling projects. It seems stubborn to rule out cleaner and safer oil drilling as a healthy complement to the widespread introduction of alternative energies in the United States. McCain has long intrigued me on the issue of the economy, but he's now starting to convince me.

On top of it, all I seem to hear about Obama recently is "Speech in Berlin" and "Open Convention!" Not to mention a stead stream of creepy, Obama-cult garbage like this video on YouTube:

[If we're accusing Obama of having a big ego, we should label Will.I.Am and all the other celebrity political preachers in his videos similarly]

Give me an open road to Maine, some McCain events, and two days or so to clear my head from Obama—he and I really need some time apart.

WALL-E

2008-07-19T18:14:00.000-04:00

In the theater, waiting for the lights to go down.

Looking forward to some nice (apocalyptic) relief from a long work week.

371 Days Ago

2008-07-19T14:56:00.000-04:00

A blog post to be proud of. Read it HERE.

Change "Primary Season" to "General Election."

Change "Hillary Clinton" to "Barack Obama."

Otherwise, the story is pretty much the same as it was last July.

If there's an underdog strong enough to fight to the finish, it's John McCain.

Unnecessary

2008-07-19T00:05:00.001-04:00

...Especially because McCain has very talented video folks working for him and has a whole slew of classier web ads and TV spots he could be putting out there. It's in these below-the-belt videos against Obama that McCain stands to lose credibility among crucial voting blocks, and I would much rather see either of the videos below than more of the "Obama doesn't support the troops" baloney:

Get Excited

2008-07-18T13:24:00.001-04:00

Coming soon from this very site...

VoteGopher: Worth a (long and serious) Look

2008-07-18T00:04:00.001-04:00

Because it pays to be an honest blogger and disclose this type of thing, I was hired to produce all of VoteGopher.com's video content, but they're a seriously awesome website nonetheless.

Once their new website is fully operational, do yourself a favor and check them out.

The Hype Machine

2008-07-17T11:01:00.001-04:00

Blah, blah, blah.

Per the New York Post:

Take his decision to deliver his acceptance speech at Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver. It seems that the venue for the rest of the Democratic convention - the Pepsi Center (occupancy 21,000) - is just too small.

Obama says he wants to give the common folk more "access" to the process. Only a man with an Olympian's sense of entitlement to mass worship could describe such a choreographed descent upon a place called "Mile High" as an effort to bond with the common man. A demigod, it seems, is never so tall as when he stoops to bask in the adoration of the little people.

Seriously.

Jon Hecht, Candidate for State Representative

2008-07-16T20:31:00.000-04:00

After seventeen months on the Presidential campaign trail, it's refreshing to return home to cover politics in the town where my campaign involvement began: Watertown, MA.

My current representative in the 29th Middlesex District, Rachel Kaprelian, has recently taken a job as the Registrar of Motor Vehicles and has left the district with the opportunity for a sticker/write-in campaign to fill her spot. Though Kaprelian was challenged in 2006 by Keith Mercurio, a Republican, she was running unopposed until she changed jobs.

A few days ago I received a flier for a ice cream social/meet the candidate event for Jon Hecht, so to feel like an informed voter and learn a thing or two about local politics I decided to stop by.

It was welcoming for once to attend a "campaign event" without much emphasis on issues like gay marriage, property taxes, or education policy—in other words, politics. here are sure to be debates and leaflets comparing the three Democratic candidates on certain issues (though I don't imagine there are too many differences between them), local politics revolves around volunteer organization and the mobilization of voters.

For what it's worth, Jon Hecht's campaign seems pretty darn organized, especially since there are still two months before the local Democratic Primary.

(All photos: Luke N. Vargas. 2008. All Rights Reserved.)

Pology

2008-07-16T03:11:00.000-04:00

"Too much of today's travel writing focuses on where to stay, eat and shop, but I'm convinced that there is a breed of traveler out there that knows getting lost and having the details unfold spontaneously is what leads to the stories that can be fondly retold for the rest of your life."

So says Neil Schwartz, the editor of the online travel journal/photography collection magazine "Pology."

I happened across Pology yesterday when searching around Craigslist. It turns out that Pology invites travelers, photographers, writers, and anyone willing to take a trip the opportunity to submit content to the online magazine. Though Pology does not publish everything it receives, I was happy to see a wide variety of people contributing.

Formal and organized enough to seem cultured, yet bare-bones enough to keep the focus on the photos and writing, Pology is a great place to read about and experience foreign lands, or, in the case of the recent article about Gloucester, MA, a town just a few miles away.

Another Reason to Like the Clintons

2008-07-15T19:18:00.002-04:00

2) Bill Clinton's doing some awesome work at the Clinton Foundation.

If I could scramble down to Harlem, NY for Thursday's event I definitely would. This just arrived in my inbox:

New York, NY – President Bill Clinton will deliver a major Clinton Foundation announcement on Thursday, July 17, 2008 at 12:45 PM at the Clinton Foundation Harlem Office. Currently, the Clinton Foundation works in over 44 countries on six continents to address some of the most pressing global challenges, including HIV/AIDS, climate change, childhood obesity in the United States and economic development around the world

What: Clinton Foundation Announcement

Who: President Clinton and leading drug manufacturers

Where: Clinton Foundation
55 W. 125th Street
New York, NY

When: Thursday, July 17, 2008
12:45 PM

Exciting stuff.

Ground Delivery

2008-07-15T13:20:00.001-04:00

It took a long time to arrive, but Carl Bernstein's "A Woman in Charge" finally landed on my doorstep this morning.

Since the Democratic Primary season ended, my attitude towards my two heros of the past year—Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton—have changed in different ways. As I hear more and more about Dodd's alleged acceptance of "VIP" loans from Countrywide, I can't help but think he really squandered a chance to be Obama's Vice President, and I wish he never would have gotten involved in any shady dealings.

On the other hand, I couldn't be more proud of Hillary Clinton as I continue to see her on the campaign trail and read about her life story and reflect on her campaign.

I'm thrilled to crack open Bernstein's work later this week.

Make it Two

2008-07-15T01:39:00.002-04:00

Add a "Rochester, NH Town Hall" with John McCain into the mix for next week, and my excitement for next Monday as really escalated.

After three Obama events in a row I'm ready to hit the campaign trail with McCain again, especially in a city I've yet to visit for the 2008 campaign (Portland, ME) and a town where I already have a lot of great memories (Rochester, NH).

On August 8th, 2007 I visited Rochester, NH's Opera House to see Hillary Clinton deliver a policy speech about the critical state of America's infrastructure. In case you don't remember, the Minneapolis bridge collapse had occurred just weeks before, and I was quick to jump on Clinton's case for delivering what I saw as an opportunistic speech.

You can read my full post about the event HERE.

Though I was far from a Hillary supporter last August, the event at the Rochester Opera House would lead me to build a campaign friendship of sorts with an older couple in Rochester that would really open my eyes to Hillary Clinton and her message. It is safe to say that the event began to change the way I thought of Senator Clinton, and I will remember that event as one of the highlights of my time on the campaign trail.

So is McCain's event in Rochester next week destined to be equally memorable? Perhaps.

To start, McCain is holding his town in the same Opera House I visited almost a year ago...

A New State

2008-07-14T21:57:00.000-04:00

Next Monday (July 21st) I will be in Portland, Maine to attend campaign events for Senator John McCain.

In a state John Kerry won by 8%, McCain currently trails Barack Obama by nearly double that margin. It will certainly be interesting to see what strategy McCain adopts in this large yet electorally-unimportant state as he tries to chip away at Obama's lead.

More than that, Maine will become the seventh state in which I've covered the 2008 campaign—a development I'm looking forward to celebrating.

Two Names for McCain

2008-07-13T13:45:00.002-04:00

It's easy to get caught up in the day-to-day excitement of the non-story that is the Vice Presidential search.

...but if you can't help but speculate (or pretend to know what you're talking about...just as I am here), you'd be wise to check out Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Decide for yourself whether or not she sounds like a great choice for McCain, and if you're looking for a second good match look no further than Charlie Crist.

Happy musing!

The Joke's On Us

2008-07-13T07:30:00.005-04:00

This humo(u)r's funny for the Brits cause they actually understand the concept of saving energy.

For a hearty dose of seriously smart energy talk for us Americans check out Mortimer Zuckerman's "Stop the Energy Insanity" article. Though I credit left-wing environmental/energy nuts for helping to get the energy discussion out into the public forum, real progress will come from energy "straight-talk" (not an endorsement of McCain) like Zuckerman's.

Note: The August issue of GQ features a fantastic guide to making smart energy/environmental decisions without seeming like a goof doing it. It's well worth a read, but sadly the article is not available online.

Barack, Say Yes Just Once

2008-07-13T00:01:00.001-04:00

"No" to joint town halls with McCain. "No" to public financing. Now it's "no" to a town hall meeting at Fort Hood with John McCain.

Read it HERE.

Obama's free to do whatever he wants, and if he really does have a "previously scheduled commitment on the date proposed," than I understand why August 11th won't work for him, but check out the following from the NY Times article:

“I’m having extreme difficulty getting the Obama campaign to commit to this event, and we do not understand why,” said Ms. Picard, whose husband is deployed in Iraq. “We made it very clear to them that if they would commit to the event, we would work with them on dates.”

The organizers released details about the event in hopes that it would pressure the Obama campaign to agree to the event.

“This was a decision that was made with tremendous difficulty, to publicize it,” Ms. Picard said. “We were at a point where we had no other option. We got the impression that they could talk us to November.”

I'm starting to get the impression too that the Obama campaign turns down these offers time and time again only to scramble to schedule their own event on the date mentioned.

How can Obama prove me (and a growing number of disappointed voters) wrong? Take McCain up on one of McCain's offers.

Is John McCain really that much better in the town hall format, or is the Obama campaign simply going to script this election their way?

Preference Polls vs. Favorability Polls

2008-07-12T19:33:00.004-04:00

People may make up their mind about who they're going to vote for at the last minute—something conventional polling cannot account for or predict—but candidate favorability/unfavorability polls shed light on why voters like or dislike candidates on political positions as well as more personal, emotional levels.

That's why I think Newsweek's set of Obama and McCain favorability polls released today are so exciting:

Obama: Favorable +24.0
McCain: Favorable +23.0

Obama's number is down from an all-time high of +36, while McCain weighs in relatively high after a few months of polling placed him somewhere between +/- 0 to +20.

Do these numbers show that Obama is losing supporters and is now more widely disliked than he was previously? No. But the polling shows that two relatively well-liked candidates are running for the Presidency this November, and that's pretty exciting.

My (Unpleasant) iPhone Encounter

2008-07-11T20:31:00.001-04:00

When Final Cut Pro Studio HD (my very pricey Apple video editing software) encountered a series of critical errors this morning, I figured I could do no better than to walk half a block from where I work in NYC to Apple's United States flagship retail store on Fifth Avenue.

As it turns out, Apple was more interested in making sure trend-obsessed iPhone 3G seekers got their devices than I could have someone look at the thousands of dollars of equipment and software I also purchased from them could be fixed.

"Where can I go to get help? My job revolves around this computer and software." I temped the security guards and Apple staff at the door to let me in so I could "buy a new MacPro." Even offering to throw down $5,000 in the store got me nowhere.

"I'm starting to wonder if a great computer company is turning into a phone and MP3 company," I muttered as I trudged back to work, knowing full well I could not DO anymore work until I could get some hardware help at an Apple store.

From the office window I could see the line of iPhone customers stretching around the block and up Madison Avenue.

The iPhone/iPod era certainly helps Apple rake in the money, but I've yet to see it improve the quality of Apple's computers or my customer satisfaction. For today, at least, I was not a happy customer.

It's the Economy

2008-07-11T15:38:00.000-04:00

Think of another issue that begins to come close to close to the economy this election year.

The Iraq war?

Nope.

Health care?

Nope.

America's economic crisis is and will continue to be the biggest issue this election. The trailer for "I.O.U.S.A." below, coupled with hearing Senator John Edwards on NPR's Talk of the Nation last week, made it clear how almost every issue of importance this year ties into the economic problems we're dealing with now. Even Phil Gramm's idiotic comments this week highlight a key part of our economic situation: the wealth gap.

Get worried:

Obama & Clinton New York City Fundraiser Photos

2008-07-10T14:00:00.004-04:00

No Man's Land: Ralph Nader Style

2008-07-10T10:58:00.001-04:00

...at least he's enjoying himself.

Check out what Nader's been up:

Fri. July 4th 2pm
Nutritious and Delicious Independence Day Luncheon with Ralph Nader
Honolulu, HI

Not bad at all, Ralph.

Food for Thought

2008-07-10T09:31:00.003-04:00

Before launching into the trademark conclusion of his campaign speeches—'if we come together, we can do more than win an election, we can change this country, we can change the world'—he said (not an exact quote) "both Hillary Clinton and I will work for you in Washington."

I have never been a supporter of the Hillary Clinton VP option, and I don't like to throw it subtly into whatever I write, but Obama's words seemed a lot different than the usual "Hillary Clinton is a great supporter and I appreciate her hard work."

Food for thought.

An interesting event—and more interesting once I can get my hands on a transcript of this morning's remarks.

Clinton Off, Obama On Stage

2008-07-10T09:09:00.000-04:00

Hillary Clinton delivered a MUCH tighter speech than her Unity, NH introduction. Longer, punchier, and, because she is the local Senator here, much more comfortable.

After two weeks campaigning and fundraising together since Unity, Hillary Clinton has not only transitioned very naturally from Obama's competitor to Obama's fellow campaigner. In that new role Clinton seems able to reflect on her own campaign more smoothly; both she had Obama acknowledged the "ugly biases" that sometimes flared up during the primary fight.

Obama just took the stage and, despite the crowd's willingness to give him a long standing ovation, quickly thanked and quieted the audience before diving into his own speech; a typical move to help stick to the day's schedule (his next event is in 3 1/2 hours in Virginia), but a tad unnatural for Obama.

Photos look good, they'll be up later.

An Interesting Mix

2008-07-10T07:55:00.001-04:00

Red, white, and blue Obama pins on expensive dresses. A girl with a green and yellow "Skidmore College" sweatshirt at a table with six women in pant-suits and fancy jewelry.

None of the campaign workers here will estimate the crowd size or how much it cost to reserve a table or a seat here, but knowing fundraisers, $1,000/person seems like a good place to start--access to John McCain's fundraisers begins at $500/person, with a sliding scale up to $2,300 for a VIP reception and photo op.

In short, there might be contrasts here visually--the sweatshirts and the sundresses--but Obama's fundraisers are still fundraisers, and the same rule applies: if you need to ask how much it costs to get in, you can't afford it.

Five minutes until the program begins...

[EDIT: The minimum donation per person for this morning's event was $250]

Live from the Hilton Towers, NYC

2008-07-10T07:21:00.000-04:00

Talk about upscale.

Imagine Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and a ballroom packed with wealthy New York City women and couples.

The Obama staff has (so far) floored me with their level of organization and professionalism. Compared to the nightmare of Unity, NH, full breakfasts are being served (and I'm planning on nabbing one if there are empty seats by the end of the fundraiser) to what I would estimate to be over 1,500 attendees. I've heard no complaints so far, and New Yorkers are not the easiest crowd in the morning.

The morning's program is set to begin at 8:00.

Expect another quick update later and pictures online this evening.

McCain Campaign Begins NH Intern Hunt

2008-07-10T00:05:00.001-04:00

Read about it HERE.

The real news is that Barack Obama has been on the ground with a team of paid staffers and a few dozen "Obama Organizing Fellows" for some months now.

Obama's early mobilization on the ground in New Hampshire could certainly help him, but McClatchy's David Lightman acknowledges a strength of John McCain that Obama's timing may not be able to cancel out:

"McCain starts his bid for New Hampshire's four electoral votes with an important potential advantage: He's not only well-known, he's something of a local hero."

Obama did well in January's Democratic primary but didn't emerge a star here. He finished a close second to Hillary Clinton and won 41 percent of the independent vote, the best showing of any candidate among New Hampshire independents but not an overwhelming tally.

Obama is holding a solid margin over McCain in recent New Hampshire polling, but if the recent Republican Primaries there are any indication, voters don't realize how much they admire McCain until it's time to vote....and that's a long way away.

Awful

2008-07-09T18:15:00.000-04:00

I've taken the bus from Boston to New York City a number of times—the past three times it has poured and stormed, delaying the trip by upwards of 90 minutes.

Today is no different.

Here's to 5+ hours on a (very) cramped Bolt Bus.

(as you can tell, the internet is still working, which makes up a little bit for the shameful lack of armrests)

On the Phone, in the Mail

2008-07-09T08:03:00.000-04:00

Over the past year I've made my fair share of campaign donations:

$$$ to Hillary Clinton
$$$ to Chris Dodd
$$ to Joe Biden

$$ to John McCain

$ to Mike Huckabee

In addition, I am on the mailing lists for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Bill Richardson.

That comes to two points of contact with Republicans and a whole BUNCH for the Democrats.

Despite my numerous donations to Democratic campaigns and the number of Democratic politicians that have my email address in their mailing lists, I've been getting dozens and dozens of letters, surveys, phone calls (on my cell phone too!) from Republicans nationwide asking to "continue my generous support for Republican candidates across the country."

Whether it be a letter "from" President Bush, Mike Huckabee, or the GOP's 'Victory 2008,' the Republican Party seems to treasure my so-called support. On the contrary, I have not received any form of communication from former Democratic presidential candidates, the Democratic Party, or Barack Obama asking for money, etc.

I'm not going to vote for or give money to a Republican just because I receive a mass-email or letter, but I'd suggest the Democrats upon up all channels of communication with potential supporters, if not to help Barack Obama, but to cement unity among their supporters for years to come.

I Spy

2008-07-08T12:01:00.000-04:00

Barack Obama's name has made its way into various pop culture slots for a while now, but mixtapes are new territory.

Above is a screenshot I took of a mixtape released yesterday, DJ Diggz and DJ R-Rated's "Change Gone Come."

Mixtapes are exchanged freely on the web, so give the tape a listen by downloading it HERE.

Bothersome

2008-07-08T00:01:00.000-04:00

In case you didn't know, Chevron is behind the new website WillYouJoinUs.com. Not only is the name of the website crafty in its implication that an oil company is leading the way in exploring alternative energies and alleviating America's oil addiction (their business!), but the website is full of little games and tools that make it seem like Chevron is open to a number of options for America's energy future. Take for example their fancy little game called Energyville (click the name to play!) in which players get to choose which energy sources their futuristic city will rely on.

Despite my ability to fulfill 85% of my city's energy needs with a combination of solar, wind, and hydroelectic power, I wasn't surprised to discover it's impossible to complete level 1 without constructing a giant petroleum platform.

The "Your City Needs Petroleum!" message didn't disappoint me as much as some of the scenarios for the future that Chevron assumes in this cute little game. The fact of the matter is that cities today DO need petroleum to fuel cars, power plants, and other critical parts of our infrastructure, but Chevron takes the petroleum assumption too far by inserting petroleum into the energy equation long after it needs to be phased out.

For example, consider the "Breakthrough!" alert that popped up in year 2020 of the game:

Let's face it, oil supplies are finite and it's unlikely (to be generous with my words) technology can fix that. However, Chevron would like us to believe that with more research, more government funding, more tax breaks, and more time that they can discover ways to essentially create oil from thin air.

If you have a few minutes on your hands, give Energyville a shot. Even if the game isn't too "gamey," it's certainly fun to realize it's all a bunch of oil industry propaganda!

No Nonsense

2008-07-07T11:00:00.002-04:00

My favorite sources for online political commentary are not the typical 'NYTimes, WaPo, Politico' roundup, but rather the Joan Walsh (Salon), New York Magazine, Vanity Fair trio.

Of particular interest to me this week (along with Gail Sheehy's "Hillaryland at War" in Vanity Fair) was Joan Walsh's "Slamming Wesley Clark." Cutting through ALL of the media hysteria that keeps begging the question, "are you sure Wesley Clark was not denigrating McCain's war experience?" Walsh presents the situation with Wes Clark very close to how I see it. One week after the initial "incident" occurred, I can't get over the fact that Clark has gone from a respected military commander and awesome Democrat to the black sheep of the Obama campaign.

Here is 80% of Walsh's column (read the rest HERE):

I was sorry to see the Obama campaign "reject" Gen. Wesley Clark's remarks about John McCain on Face the Nation yesterday. I think the context of Clark's remarks mattered (although that's gotten lost in the right wing blogosphere's attacks on Clark). Clark was baited into his statement by host Bob Schieffer, who took issue with some earlier, milder remarks Clark had made about McCain's military service not being direct preparation for the presidency.

Here's what was said:

Schieffer: I have to say, Barack Obama has not had any of those experiences either, nor has he ridden in a fighter plane and gotten shot down. I mean --

Clark: Well, I don't think riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification to be president.

Schieffer: Really?

I think the most fascinating part of the exchange was Schieffer's "Really?" which teed up the whole MSM outragegasm over Clark's words. Really, Bob, it's true: Riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down are not, by themselves, qualifications to be president.

Obama needs military leaders and veterans who aren't afraid to stand up and question McCain's "experience" argument, when so much of it is tied to his military experience. Earlier in the interview Clark called McCain a "hero" for the way he endured five and a half years of torture as a POW, but he was credibly taking on the argument that McCain's military experience, itself, makes him uniquely qualified to be commander in chief. I'm not sure Obama had to reject what Clark said, which was otherwise unobjectionable. I think Clark deserved better.

Good stuff.

Meanwhile...

2008-07-07T05:45:00.000-04:00

...some conservatives are ready to look beyond November and plan for a Republican resurgence AFTER 2008.

Call it a smart long-term plan or the famous (and effective) strategy of lowering expectations, but this coming election is in the Democrats' court.

Taking the Attacks off the Shelf

2008-07-06T15:35:00.001-04:00

Barack Obama has had to dodge a few Republican bullets since Hillary Clinton ended her campaign last month, but he hasn't had to deal with what's about to come his way: massive anti-Obama advertising.

Head to head against McCain (debates, town halls, press conferences, etc.) I think Obama can defend himself well enough, but hundreds of millions of Republican dollars will soon be pumped into television sets around the country to try and change voters' opinions about Obama. It is the sad truth of modern day elections, but a large portion of the electorate will vote in November based upon their "impressions" of Obama, not what he actually stands for as a politician.

Some of these ads will be successful (think Swift Boat Vets for Truth...) and some won't be. But one thing is clear to me: negative advertising will be very effective in stopping Obama's inroads into new Democratic territory—Montana, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana—where unpleasant half-truths about Obama will resonate with a traditionally conservative base of voters.

Mixing it Up, Again

2008-07-06T15:08:00.005-04:00

The L.A. Times and DemConWatch are reporting that the Obama campaign will move Barack's nomination acceptance speech from Denver's Pepsi Center to Invesco Field. In terms that everyone will understand: they're taking the show from the basketball arena to the football stadium.

The New York Magazine's Sam Anderson presented (in a brilliant piece a few weeks back) three routes Obama could take for delivering his DNC speech this year:

1) To give a highly rhetorical and typical "brilliant" Obama speech.

2) To break the mold of the 'Great Obama Speech.' Says Anderson, "His greatest speech, in this situation, might actually be a bad one."

3) Anderson's third (and favorite) option was for Obama to "fundamentally reimagine the occasion, as he did with the race speech, and blow the roof off the building."

If Obama does decide to take his speech to a outdoor crowd nearing 100,000, the spectacle of the occasion could do a lot of the talking for Obama. Without saying a word, Obama would already have redefined the notion of the accepting the nomination.

[EDIT 7/7] The Obama campaign has confirmed Obama's speech will be held at Invesco Stadium. As reported by CNN: "Convention organizers portrayed the move as a reflection of Obama's success at encouraging people to vote for the first time."

I don't buy it—nobody was demanding Obama move to a larger venue for his speech. The Obama campaign should realize that voters demand more important things than to see their candidate at large rallies.

[EDIT #2] The location change is now being used as a fundraising opportunity.

To continue my above commentary, "The Obama campaign should realize that voters demand more important things than to PAY for the opportunity to see their candidate at large rallies."

Rewinding the Story: The One Year Anniversary

2008-07-04T00:01:00.000-04:00

[Below is a revised version of a post I began writing shortly after my encounter with the July 4th, 2007 "Bill Richardson Hummer." I am leaving all the tenses in their original form—I was going to publish this story in early August, 2007]

This story began a month ago. It started quickly—with a keen eye and a few clicks of a camera—and was soon published on this very blog. Shortly after the post went online a handful of other bloggers caught on, most of them using the photos I took:

The Daily Background(with updates HERE)
The Politico's Ben Smith
Green Mountain Politics1

Along with a fair number of visitors at this and other blogs who were displeased with Richardson's actions were a few (some angry) Richardson people who cleared up the situation as quickly as they could. I checked in with the sources who were also carrying the sources and followed their lead by taking down what I had originally written. A month out, I still can't put down the story, so here I am again.

New Hampshire campaigning is a lot like New Hampshire itself—big flashy things stick out in the presence of rolling hills and pleasant landscapes. I was equally surprised to see a shiny black Hummer show up at the small-town Amherst Fourth of July parade with a trailer of Bill Richardson for President equipment in tow. I was all the more surprised to spot New Mexico plates on the vehicle, as well as the logo for "Santa Fe Protective Services." That name sure didn't sound like "Joe's Hardware" to me, so I committed it to memory.

Below is the logo for Santa Fe Protective Services from their website...it's a match.

Light research into the company didn't turn up any direct explanation for its presence at the event--the company wasn't receiving money from the Richardson campaign and there was no mention of the Governor on their web page. I did, however, find the following listed on the company's "about us" page:

Christina Moya isn't on Richardson's staff either, but finding her name on the page began to unravel a complicated plot much more detailed than the response Richardson's campaign gave after the Hummer story broke: that the car was simply that of a supporter. Personally, I think of supporters as families in minivans or guys with old cars and bumper stickers that follow a candidate around and hold up signs. "Supporter" takes on a new meaning here.

Christina Moya is the daughter of Mr. Walter "Butch" Maki, a New Mexico businessman and recent home-buyer in New Hampshire.

Who is Butch? Check out the following articles:

(Business Wire, Jan. 5, 2005)

Walter "Butch" Maki, a former helicopter combat soldier in Vietnam, served as long-time district director for Congressman Bill Richardson, and formed professional relationships with New Mexico's federal, state, and local political and grassroots leaders.

(Albuquerque Journal, Feb. 11, 2007)

(Santa Fe New Mexican, Jan. 28, 2007)

So...Maki is a lobbyist and former aide of Bill Richardson, but what proof is there of Maki receiving any recent benefit from his relationship with the Governor? Well, here's one possibility that sticks out (from the Santa Fe New Mexican on March 3, 2005):

The [New Mexico] House approved the bill on a 56-6 vote without almost no debate.

One provision could provide some financing for a startup company that is negotiating to buy Qwest's telephone lines on the Navajo reservation. The company, Sacred Wind Communications, plans to use wireless technology to expand telephone service on Navajo lands.

A quick search of the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission's website yields a searchable database of corporations operating within New Mexico. Using the search, Maki's name appears next to two corporations, one of which should sound quite familiar...

Sacred Wind—the company contracted under Richardson's administration.

Maki's ties to Richardson, as well as many members of New Mexico's political elite, undoubtedly helped him secure millions of dollars in government contracts during Richardson's time in office.

It's not corruption when a business has very good relationships with politicians and can get terrific government contracts...it's America.

[So did I overreact last year when I put up photos of "Bill Richardson's Gas-Guzzling Hummer" online? Yes, but was there more behind this "supporter's" vehicle than I was initially told (or angrily commented about) by Richardson's campaign? You tell me.]

HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY!!

Start Believing

2008-07-03T14:43:00.005-04:00

Rasmussen:

It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier.

Rasmussen's latest Montana head-to-head poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 5%.

As they say, truly stunning...especially when you look at how Montana voted in 2004.

Still Waiting

2008-07-03T00:08:00.002-04:00

I've visited the site of NYC's World Trade Center three times in my life: first in early 2001 when the towers were still standing, and twice since the attacks of September 11 in 2004 and just a few months ago in March 2008. In those four years, as the Burj Dubai has gone from groundbreaking to becoming the world's tallest structure, I have seen no visible changes at the site. The lack of progress is saddening to think about, and I'm not the only one who feels that way.

Steven Malanga recently published a great (and frustrating) article about the WTC site. It's worth a read HERE.

Coming Soon

2008-06-30T15:57:00.004-04:00

VS.

I really enjoyed writing long and thoroughly-researched posts during my "Profile Month" in May, so I'm looking to begin a series of interviews with local experts (local here means MIT, Harvard, etc.) comparing John McCain's "Lexington Plan" and Barack Obama's energy proposal.

Check back in a week or so for that!

A Long Day Ahead

2008-06-29T22:45:00.000-04:00

A little TV at 6 A.M., lots of work, lots of errands, and a little traveling too.

All of it without enough sleep.

Good night.

In My Professional Opinion

2008-06-29T08:50:00.003-04:00

[Per CNN's amusing online poll]

If this is where global warming information is coming from, we're all in trouble.

Unity Had Occurred, Regardless of the Pageantry

2008-06-28T19:40:00.019-04:00

I rarely spend much time preparing for a campaign event. All I need is a few hours to charge my camera batteries and I'm on my way.

My routine changed for yesterday's "United for Change" rally. Not only did I repeatedly (and unnecessarily) submit my request for press credentials to guarantee that I was given access, but I gave the event more that its fair share of attention over the past few days. On Wednesday I predicted a larger crowd than expected, imagining news headlines like: "Tens of Thousands Make Pilgrimage to Unity." As it happens one could summarize the whole event as simply, "2,500 Unite for Historic Event," but that doesn't tell the whole story.

Driving to New Hampshire yesterday I played out a number of scenarios in my head about the rally. I expected a bunch of older voters and stay-at-home moms and dads to show up. I also figured there would be a smattering of protesters, both Republicans and Democrats. It seemed pretty simple: the two candidates would share the stage as a symbol of the Democratic Party's unification, and while most everyone would be excited, a handful of disgruntled ex-Clinton supporters would try to make the news with "Obama's an Empty Suit!" signs.

True, true, and true.

I had never felt it before at an Obama event, but I half expected (to borrow Clinton's previously sarcastic line) "the sky to open, the light to come down, and celestial choirs to start singing" outside the middle school in Unity. As it turns out, I could barely muster goosebumps.

Although the rally was a solid event, it never really took off the way one would have expected given the two historic candidates who were uniting their efforts for the first time. In part, I believe this was due to some missed opportunities. I expected (as did others I spoke with) that both Senators Obama and Clinton would finally loosen up and use yesterday's event as an opportunity to poke fun at their long primary fight in order to lighten the mood and release some of the tension and pent up emotions between their two campaigns, and to move on, with a shared laugh, towards a sense of shared community that would be felt by both of the candidates' backers. That never happened. In addition, for so long now, Obama and Clinton supporters have prided themselves on being different from each other and I never felt like either of the Senators took a moment yesterday to simply break the ice and acknowledge those differences (the proverbial "elephant in the room") and state that they would be valued and respected, as part of the process of bridging the interests of their respective campaigns.

As I stepped off the school bus that transported the media to the event, I couldn't help but notice the giant wooden "U-N-I-T-Y" prop that had been suspended on the side of the stage, not to mention the new "United for Change" signs that were being distributed. It was clear that the Obama campaign wanted to turn this rally into something truly spectacular. From my point of view that did not happen.

It strikes me now that it was not the Obama campaign's fault that yesterday's rally was not one of the more memorable campaign events I've been to. Beyond the logistical difficulties inherent in organizing a campaign event --delays in bussing thousands of people into and out of a tiny rural town, long waits, and occasionally inadequate facilities--all of which occurred here, first, in the hot sun, and then, in a fierce thunderstorm. The hardest part—the part that the Obama campaign had difficulty achieving —was how to market the idea of "unity" in ways to create a compelling front page story and make a big splash.

New Hampshire Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter said it best yesterday: "Did anyone ever doubt this moment would happen?"

Whether or not anyone will remember what was said in Unity, NH, the moment has occurred.

(Photo credit: Luke N. Vargas. 2008. All Rights Reserved)

Worth an Hour

2008-06-28T16:41:00.003-04:00

I'm a pretty faithful listener of Ira Glass' This American Life on NPR, but I was floored by this week's show more than most. What was to be a quick trip in the car to pick up a soda turned into an hour in the parking lot listening from beginning to end.

Not to unnecessarily politicize today's show, but with the Supreme Court's ruling this week defining the words of a document centuries old, I've been thinking a lot about how people deal with issues larger than themselves or how others fail, though sometimes succeed, at making decisions on our behalf.

Episode 358: Social Engineering articulates through storytelling what's been on my mind.

If you're not in the mood for such a dramatic listening experience, check out my all-time favorite This American Life episode, "First Day," from way back in 2002.

Terrific

2008-06-28T16:15:00.006-04:00

[Watch Part II]

[Watch Part III]

One Shot

2008-06-27T20:46:00.010-04:00

Computer isn't working well enough to get the rest up tonight.

Too many hours in the heat with no sunscreen's given me a headache and drained my energy for the night.

I will try to crank out Michelle Obama and Unity, NH summaries by tomorrow evening.

(Photo credit: Luke N. Vargas. 2008. All Rights Reserved)

Barely Made It

2008-06-27T18:11:00.001-04:00

Word is that it took more than two and a half hours to get more than 4,000 supporters out of the event site today in Unity, NH. I was lucky enough to be on the first bus out, but the scene was very disorderly and a ferocious rainstorm didn't make matters any better.

I'll have some photos online later tonight.

Time for School

2008-06-27T10:19:00.001-04:00

I'm on a good old yellow school bus heading from Claremont to Unity, NH.

What I forgot to bring: sunscreen.

Yikes.

Racing West on I-89

2008-06-27T08:35:00.000-04:00

Not Enough for Me

2008-06-27T07:03:00.002-04:00

So North Korea is tearing down a prominent part of one of its nuclear plants and is forking over a lot of old nuclear program documents to the international community.

Not surprisingly, President Bush, eager to look like he can understand and react to complex international events, decided that this was a good time to lift economic sanctions on North Korea. But not just sanctions, Bush decided it was worth removing North Korea from the list of states sponsoring terrorism. That's the move I just don't get.

Korea's shift towards greater transparency in its state-run nuclear program should be applauded, and it makes the world today slightly safer than it was yesterday. But if there's one thing we learned on September 11th it was that terrorists tend to work under the radar — it's not like a government gave them four airplanes to crash — and just because North Korea may be less of a threat publicly, who knows what they're doing behind close doors. Do we know how secure the stockpiles of nuclear materials North Korea possesses are? What about the stockpiles we don't know about? Can we account for all of the uranium that has passed through North Korea in the past decade? Do we trust the North Korean government to tell us everything it's been up to?

I didn't grow up in the age of nuclear panic, so it's difficult for me to put North Korea's potential nuclear threat in perspective. But I am growing up in an age of terrorism, and it seems pretty clear to me that simply dismantling certain parts of an above-ground nuclear facility isn't enough to let North Korea off the hook as a potential sponsor of terror.

Anyone agree?

A Romantic Comedy

2008-06-26T22:04:00.002-04:00

A joint campaign stop in Unity, NH and then a campaign donation from Obama to Hillary Clinton. The storyline keeps getting cheesier and cheesier (and better).

How many great jokes about their long nomination contest will Clinton and Obama's speechwriters throw into the two candidates' remarks tomorrow? Tons.

Bring it on, Unity!

Live from The Armory

2008-06-26T14:16:00.005-04:00

I'm in the blogging section of the Manchester, NH Radisson Hotel's Armory Ballroom.

On stage are Michelle Obama, Jeanne Shaheen, and four female New Hampshire panelists. The topics of discussion today are issues concerning working women and the struggles middle-class families face in New Hampshire.

Michelle Obama opened the event with prepared remarks that she seemed to struggle through (and she seemed a little uncomfortable playing the political game of introductions and thank yous) but she has settled into her role as discussion moderator very well, and ideas and stories are being shared and spoken very naturally.

Did Michelle Obama perform well as a smiling face on stage behind her husband? Yes, but she's excelling in a much more politically useful role now.

There will be a lot to write about this event once I return back to Massachusetts late Friday.

(All photos: Luke N. Vargas. 2008. All Rights Reserved)

Unity

2008-06-25T18:07:00.003-04:00

I was just watching a local cable news report about Unity, NH, the site of this Friday's joint Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton campaign rally.

Unity's sheriff was interviewed on TV predicted the number of spectators and press combined to total between two and three thousand people.

Ha!

Unity's PD should be ready for A LOT more than that.

[I'll be in Unity to cover the event starting early Friday A.M.]

Obama Gains Some Serious Ground

2008-06-25T16:30:00.000-04:00

They may not be "battleground states," but Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky have been solid red states for some years now.

Suppose Obama doesn't win any of the three—chances are he won't—but in 2004 Bush won the three states by an average of over 15%.

Fast forward to Barack Obama, 2008, that number is down to just over 6%.

Holy smokes.

Is it even necessary to bring up that Obama is up now (by 1%) in Indiana, something yours truly didn't believe could happen.

[graphs from electoral vote]

14—12, for now.

2008-06-23T13:55:00.002-04:00

For a while I've held that the general election will come down to a small handful of issues (more so than it will come down to certain swing states): Iraq, energy policy, and McCain's perceived "ethics."

Looking at my results from American Public Media's candidate quiz, my match with Obama would have jumped significantly if I agreed with him on Iraq, and McCain's score would be a lot lower if I no longer believed McCain put country over politics.

I may score a 14-12 now, but August could bring a 10-16, and November a 20-6.

I said back in early April: "It's unfortunate and hard for many people to realize that when you force your politics down someone's throat, they'll never say something that could potentially weaken their own position. Being more civil, however, you notice that the distinctions between Obama and Clinton, for example, are more nuanced. Furthermore, you're more comfortable admitting that your side isn't perfect."

I still believe that dynamic exists between Barack Obama and John McCain, and I'm curious to see which issues are guiding voters' decisions.

Take the quiz below and let me know what your result is by leaving a comment on this post or sending me an email at lukevargas2040@gmail.com.

Happy quizzing!

Your Web browser software doesn't support frames, but you can visit Select A Candidate™ at www.selectacandidate.org.

Worn Out

2008-06-22T17:32:00.003-04:00

2.5 jobs, a week of travel, a concert, lots of dinners and receptions, and finally a (sort of) free day tomorrow.

I've been working on a few interesting posts for the week ahead, so they'll be some new content arriving on the blog over the next few days, but for now I'm off to enjoy a relaxing night and as many hours of sleep as I can squeeze in.

Letting Others Do the Talking

2008-06-20T11:14:00.002-04:00

Yesterday I posted a rather fiery response to Obama's decision not to take public financing for his campaign, and I got a lot of heat for it. I deserved it. Now that I've taken the post down I decided I'd let some more credible sources do the talking for me.

Below are a number of great articles from around the web that are consistent with the way I feel:

"Obama out of system, but not out of character," by Ben Smith, POLITICO

"Obama chose winning over his word," by Liz Sidoti, AP

[If you can survive the kind of sarcasm I only wish I could write]
"Oooh, The New Politics," by Mona Charen, RealClearPolitics

Don't say you heard it from me.

A Fantastic Ending

2008-06-20T01:22:00.000-04:00

There are few better ways to end a week in New York City than club seats to a R.E.M. concert.

...which is to say I had a great time.

MSG

2008-06-19T17:11:00.000-04:00

As in Madison Square Garden.

R.E.M.

7:00PM

Beyond excited.

Despite the Polls...

2008-06-19T09:40:00.000-04:00

The news this week is that Obama is beating John McCain in a number of important swing states in recent polls, but what I've been hearing is a lot less positive for Obama.

I've been in New York City since Monday night and the enthusiasm for Barack Obama among New Yorkers that I expected is, if not gone, greatly reduced. In the past two days I have heard Obama's economic recovery plan mocked by countless businessmen as uninformed and naive. Not every voter is an economic policy expert, but a lot of people read the Wall Street Journal and know enough to detect an economic strategy that won't work. A line I overheard on 58th and Park yesterday:

"McCain doesn't know a thing about the economy, but he admits it and hires good advisors to tell him what to say. Obama knows what's really going on with the economy right now, but he doesn't have the guts to throw some hard reality into his platform."

Is this a signal of a significant problem for the Obama campaign? No, but I spoke with a high-ranking supporter of Bill Clinton and advisor to Jimmy Carter this week who admitted to me that they were not planning on voting for Barack Obama. Why? Because as a New Yorker, John McCain is better prepared to protect America.

Now there's a problem for Obama...

Missing New Hampshire

2008-06-17T22:33:00.000-04:00

New York City is a difficult location to experience your first “business trip,” especially as an eighteen-year-old. I’ve flown alone, driven solo all over creation, and held down the house for a few days while my parents were away, but taking the bus down to Manhattan and being plopped down into the heart of a neighborhood that doesn’t seem to want to have anything to do with you, even at 10:30 at night, is difficult. I can imagine older business travelers taking a taxi straight from the airport to the front step of their hotel, but having to kill an hour in the city before I can head off to where I’m spending the night threw me into a situation I struggled to handle.

Going into last night I had tremendous confidence. Whenever I traveled with my parents I would walk quickly through the airport ahead of them, noticing how I ended up taking all the right turns and making it to the gate without consulting a directory or trying to locate where I was. In my eyes, whenever I traveled with others I thought I was doing a much better job.

The fact of the matter is that I did do alright; I made it from South Station to the Upper East Side with no help, but I was not confident in the least. As a measure of how turned around I was, once I got off the bus on 34th street it took me almost ten minutes of embarrassing walking and rewalking of the same city blocks (with a fair share of walking in circles) to locate an ATM, one of the easiest tasks I could imagine in New York.

Yesterday may not have been the crowning success of independent travel I had hoped for, but today brought new successes, even with a handful of failures.

Traveling through New York is nothing like the traveling I’ve done in New Hampshire. Ask me turn by turn directions to Daniel Webster College or the Puritan Backroom in Manchester, I can do that. Ask me where the nearest subway stop is from where I’m staying in New York….I’m stuck.

I miss New Hampshire.

The Veteran's New Tour

2008-06-15T02:01:00.008-04:00

On Thursday I felt like the odd one out. The last campaign I had covered before John McCain's June 12th Nashua, NH town hall meeting was Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania Primary celebration on April 22, and it's been more than six months since I've caught up with McCain. Since late last year there has been a noticeable change in the tone of Senator McCain's campaign events, and I felt something different as soon as I walked into the Daniel Webster College gym on Thursday.

At McCain events, local tech crews have been replaced with 50ft high lighting trellises, staff have changed from polos to suits, and the overall feel of the "maverick" in a pack of bland (in my opinion) Republican candidates is gone. The production value of John McCain's once rural-feeling campaign events has increased tremendously, thanks largely in part to the full support of the RNC. I never attended a George W. Bush campaign event, but I can imagine it felt like this.

Even the look of the traveling press corps has changed—they are no longer a frequently-changing mix of local, regional, and national reporters, but a much closer-knit group of elite journalists resigned to the fact that they'll be covering the same candidate together for months to come.

A far cry from the cash-strapped campaign that trudged (often literally, see snow plow story) through New Hampshire, McCain is now running up expenses equal to his opponent's campaign operation.

So what separates McCain's expensive campaign setup from Obama's? Both candidates' events may look like concerts now, but for Obama the lights are bright, so the masses can revel in their company of thousands. At McCain's events now, the lights are dim and McCain ascends the stage, illuminated by a soft spotlight.

This is, after all, the election of the scene's new star and the veteran rocker—solo and performing at his second home.

McCain hasn't changed, I'm just seeing him under new lights now.

(All photos: Luke N. Vargas. 2008. All Rights Reserved)

Only Met Him Once

2008-06-14T17:48:00.001-04:00

Actually, I didn't really ever "meet" Tim Russert, but he did let me stand in front of him at a John McCain rally in Des Moines this past January. I told Russert I was a high school student and traveled all the way out to Iowa for Christmas. Russert said something to the effect of, "that's fantastic! Hope you're having a great trip."

One sentence and one photo I snapped as Tim was entering the room. That was it. But it's in the unprecedented level of journalistic integrity and hard work that now will live on in my memory of Tim Russert.

What's my first political memory?

Waking up on Sunday mornings, running down the stairs for breakfast and finding my dad watching Meet the Press.

Since 1991, always bringing enthusiasm to the job:

Straight Talk Photos

2008-06-13T14:01:00.005-04:00

Nashua, NH. June 12, 2008.

2008-06-12T12:24:00.001-04:00

I'm still in New Hampshire and the internet is too slow to update more photos, but I'll try to have a full event summary of John McCain's Nashua townhall by Saturday afternoon.

Washington: Decades Behind

2008-06-11T22:39:00.000-04:00

Do you believe in the slogan, "Change That Works for You?"

Does "Courageous service—Experienced Leadership—Bold Solutions" sound like a joke to you?

The past few days we've heard about how two energy bills, one that would place a windfall profits tax on oil companies, were stopped in the United States Senate. The jury is still out on who to blame for the high cost of gas now, and in my eyes it's not just the oil companies. I can see why a tax on oil companies wouldn't make it through Congress, but the fact that the other bill—promoting alternative energy sources—didn't make it to the floor astonishes me.

Washington DC. 2008. Still decades behind.

No matter who our next president is, alternative energy bills won't just be taken up starting in January of 2008, they'll be raced through Congress by either Barack Obama or John McCain.

Plain and simple, there's NO good reason we shouldn't start thinking about life after oil.

Mission Accomplished

2008-06-11T10:58:00.000-04:00

Going [LIVE]

2008-06-10T13:15:00.003-04:00

For anyone planning on waking up early tomorrow, I will be doing a live television taping for CN8 (Comcast News) "Your Morning" tomorrow at 7:00AM. The station is available on cable from Maine to Virginia.

The stomach butterflies are showing up already...

Quick Update

2008-06-10T11:59:00.001-04:00

If I've been absent from this blog for a few days it is because I am now working for a website called VoteGopher.com.

VoteGopher was started by a pair of Harvard undergraduates that will be comparing the positions of John McCain and Barack Obama on key issues.

For the moment my work with VoteGopher is part-time. I am serving as their Multimedia Content Coordinator in preparation for their new website launch in a few weeks.

I will try to spend as much time blogging and covering the election for this site as I can (and I am going to be in New Hampshire later this week for some John McCain events), but starting in a few weeks you will be able to see where my energy has been going.

My Hall of Fame

2008-06-08T16:06:00.001-04:00

For anyone visiting here for the first time I wanted to create a post of links to some of my posts from the past fifteen months of this blog. Of the 287 posts I've published since March 12, 2007, the following are my all-time favorites:

"'Super Volunteers" Reshape America: A Profile" — May 7, 2008

"How to Have a Conversation" — April 1, 2008

"My First Vote" [Video] — February 6, 2008

"Two Americas Came Together" (Edwards ends campaign) — January 30, 2008

"The Road We've Already Tread" (Hillary Clinton endorsement) — January 13, 2008

~IOWA CAUCUS COVERAGE~ — January 1-5, 2008

"Who Shows Up" (Barack Obama in Des Moines, IA) — January 3, 2008

"Sticking Around" (Joe Biden in Plymouth, NH) — October 11, 2007

"A New Dodd" (My Dodd endorsement) — August 31, 2007 [My #1]

" 'God Bless Him' " (Dennis Kucinich in Dover, NH) — August 17, 2007

Insider Access Makes for Great Entertainment (and Concern)

2008-06-07T00:01:00.003-04:00

Yesterday, John McCain's official campaign website posted a new video slideshow prepared by McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis.

Over the course of fifteen minutes Davis presents the data and tactics behind McCain's strategy to defeat Barack Obama. Granted, what you'll see is far from the entire official campaign plan drafted behind closed doors and being quietly executed — in the form of strategic fundraising pitches, event planning, and alliance-building, not to mention VP selection — but this taste of "insider" strategy reveals interesting information nonetheless.

One of the most noteworthy parts of the video is the McCain campaign's identification of its battleground states. It seems the campaign will be focusing highly on two states in the Midwest that I previously pegged as this election's hottest contests — Ohio and Michigan — as well as Wisconsin.

In addition, Davis says the Southwest (including the recently liberal-leaning state of New Mexico) is McCain-friendly due to the Senator's record of public service in Arizona and his "strength with Latinos and his record on immigration."

My guess is the McCain folks uploaded the video to show potential GOP fundraisers that a win in the 2008 election in within reach and the Republican Party is stronger than many might have previously thought; if Davis' remark about over 500 campaign offices opening in targeted states during the next four months isn't an inspiring line for Republican supporters, then McCain has no chance of rallying support.

I believe posting the video was a smart move. A lot of what's in the video is disconcerting for any Democrat and could lead some Democrats to second-guess Obama's nomination and erode their confidence in his candidacy. Take for instance Davis' line that a state like West Virginia — where Clinton defeated Obama by 41% — is essentially "off the map" for Obama because Democratic defectors will now vote for McCain since Clinton's out of the race. If that's the case, McCain picks up an easy 5 electoral votes.

Though the new McCain strategy briefing would lead one to believe McCain will sweep the November election, it's important to consider that a similar presentation by one of Obama's lead strategists would show quite the opposite. It's also worth noting that Obama is already fighting back with a new fundraising effort against McCain. Today, Obama's website sounded a call to arms against indications that the GOP fundraising machine is now stronger than Obama's. The advertisement urges Democrats to top McCain and the GOP's collection of over $45 million in the past month.

If Obama's fundraising totals from the Primary Election are any indication of his strength, his campaign should achieve their June goal.

No matter how many "all-knowing" campaign managers like Davis make predictions, we should take each one with a nice big grain of salt. That's not to say they don't make for entertaining reading (or viewing)...

Listen to Good Reporting

2008-06-05T23:40:00.004-04:00

Tonight's TV highlight might be the Celtics-Lakers NBA Finals game (especially here in Boston), but the cable news networks are abuzz with their sensational campaign news story of the day. For them, Barack Obama's meeting with Senator Clinton tonight serves as an opportunity to pull out live camera shots and a handful of political experts who purport to know what no other American not directly involved could know—what is going on behind closed doors.

However, if the Obama-Clinton meeting doesn't satisfy your newsy cravings and you have an hour to devote to the soothing radio tones of WAMU's The Diane Rehm Show, the best political commentary of the day comes from NBC News correspondent Richard Engel. Particularly noteworthy is Engel's presentation of what he sees as the "five wars" that have taken place in Iraq since the US invasion in 2003. Listen to the segment HERE, and skip ahead to the end of minute 17 to hear Engel's "five wars."

The heyday of network news might be over, but there's no question that the best correspondents—Engel included—continue to report with an intelligence and insight that make their reporting a waning form of art.

Pictures May be Worth 1,000 Words, But One Sentence Says More For Me

2008-06-04T00:19:00.004-04:00

From a donor and supporter email I received from Hillary Clinton:

Whatever path I travel next, I promise I will keep faith with you and everyone I have met across this good and great country. There is no possible way to thank you enough for everything you have done throughout this primary season, and you will always be in my heart.

The Final Chapter

2008-06-03T23:59:00.007-04:00

Tonight will be the last night of the Hillary Clinton campaign in my eyes. Hillary and Terry McAuliffe may decide to continue her campaign and pressure superdelegates to believe she's the stronger candidate in November vs. McCain with the hope of tipping the scales....(etc)

....but for now Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee for President.

A Boston Globe article published today communicated some of my feelings about the end of the contest for the Democratic nomination — that Clinton is stronger than McCain in the fall, that Obama is losing steam, not gaining it — with a clarity that other MSM articles I have read of late have lacked.

The reason I maintain this blog, however, is to do more than quote other sources and offer merely tidbits of my own thoughts opposite newspaper articles, and I can't help but concede that my attitudes towards tonight's news do not place me squarely under the canopy of the "Clinton-Democrats" or with the "Obama-Democrats." Neither of those titles can encapsulate all of my opinions, but that is far from a bad thing and I feel I am one of millions of Democrats who are conflicted, inspired, cautious, but concerned for the Democratic Party more than anything else.

In short, here's what I'm thinking tonight:

Obama is the first african-American to be the nominee of a major political party in our nation's history and it makes me proud.

Clinton has never been a stronger candidate than she's been over the past two months, but after tonight her motives for remaining in the race are too clear—to pray that superdelegates will decide she's stronger than McCain and begin moving to her side over the summer.

If I were a superdelegate I would look at the polls in battleground states and would support Clinton in an instant. But if I were ACTUALLY a superdelegate I would not dare to back Clinton after tonight's claiming of victory by Obama.

Racism and sexism are both wrong and can't be measured against each other. The two are equally indefensible in all their forms.

At my private high school in Cambridge, MA I heard Hillary Clinton publicly called a "bitch" on numerous occasions and observed Microsoft Paint creations of Hillary Clinton paired with a giant cartoon penis while teachers turned a blind eye. In one class this year I was one of three Hillary Clinton supporters, but the only one who dared to admit it. In that class of eleven students the teacher was a fervent Obama supporter and would argue Obama's strengths in front of the class while dismissing any cases to be made for Hillary Clinton. In one of the most liberal environments in the nation I felt silenced by fellow Democrats.

I will never "withdraw" my support for Hillary Clinton. Over the past six months I have seen a truly inspiring, passionate, authentic, effective, and strong candidate arise out of a Hillary Clinton I had previously written off as entitled and machine-like. I don't think it's wrong or destructive to the Democratic party to consider myself a supporter of Ms. Clinton in the way that I'm still an avid supporter of Joe Biden and Chris Dodd.

White voters in recent primary states voted for Hillary Clinton because they wouldn't vote for a black man. Call it "blue collar" or "working class," but it is what happened. It's an important trend to notice, and I fear Barack Obama will struggle to win the general election versus John McCain this November for this and other reasons, but it is my larger ideological responsibility as a supporter of universal health care, of energy independence, of a more dignified immigration system, of returning diplomacy to foreign affairs, and for (although it will be more difficult than any of us can imagine) to changing the way business is done in Washington, that I am now supporting Barack Obama.

Returning to the (General Election) Campaign Trail

2008-06-03T11:40:00.000-04:00

John McCain hosted 127 campaign events in New Hampshire last year. Compare that to Hillary Clinton's 81 and Obama's 70 and you realize why the state matters so much to the McCain election strategy.

If JM can put a dent in the perception that the Northeast is unbreakable Democratic territory than he stands to turn the tide on Ohio's recent liberal leanings and the advances by Democrats in traditionally GOP-friendly Indiana and Virginia.

McCain is back in New Hampshire on June 12th for a town hall meeting at Nashua's Daniel Webster College—a site at which I've attended a handful of events over the past year—and I will be sure to be in attendance.

Thursday, June 12th
Doors open at 12:30pm.
Nashua Town Hall Meeting
Daniel Webster College Gymnasium
20 University Drive
Nashua, NH 03063

Where Did High School Go?

2008-05-30T23:11:00.003-04:00

For the past fifteen or so months of maintaining this blog my time has been broken down into two main categories: school work and my free time (which I filled with a social life and a dedication to covering the election).

I graduate from high school next week, but the structure of my life has already changed from the simple regimen that I was so used to. Instead of school work I have real work: one job during the week covering the election and writing (starting June 9th), the other on weekends, spending nine hour shifts in the sun performing manual labor. The Saturday and Sunday nights that I used to count on as my primary opportunities to socialize or blob around the house writing and researching are now nights where I feel like doing little more than rest my muscles and sleep.

The moral of the story is that I've been finding it hard to devote much time to this blog the past few weeks. There is, however, one very exciting bit of news coming up on June 8th that will undoubtedly push me into full swing again with my writing and political enthusiasm, and I'm excited to return to this blog once I get a hang of my new summer work schedule.

Now, off to get some rest for an early morning wake-up!

Who's Stronger?

2008-05-27T11:18:00.002-04:00

If I'm in the mood for some election polls, RealClearPolitics has been my first stop, but since individual polls are so difficult to interpret, cumulative nationwide surveys like the ones at ElectoralVote.com are much more interesting and are becoming more and more intriguing to consider.

Keep in mind, however, that Obama was trailing McCain by around 50 electoral votes on this site a few days ago; these polls move day to day and about a dozen states are frequently change sides.

No matter how close the above map makes Iowa and New Mexico look, I see those states going to Obama in November. On the record: Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan will go for McCain in November. Heck, throw New Hampshire and Nevada in there, too. All that is contingent upon whether or not McCain can stay as strong as he's been and was during the most difficult periods of his primary campaign. The states are their for McCain to win, he just needs to show up to fight.

Lost in the Granite State

2008-05-26T10:20:00.001-04:00

My high school's closing ceremonies were on Friday, and since then I've been holed up deep in the New Hampshire woods collecting my thoughts and preparing for an intense summer of election coverage.

My unofficial itinerary has me returning back to the city (Boston) later this afternoon, so I should be back to my regular posts in just a few hours in advance of this week's profile.

Ciao!

Hagee vs. Wright

2008-05-23T21:48:00.002-04:00

This week's news concerns John McCain renouncing the endorsement of televangelist John Hagee, and the liberal media and blogosphere has been lapping up the story. What I've been hearing is this: McCain's earlier pursuit of Hagee's endorsement shows equally poor (or worse, as one Obama-friendly blogger wrote) judgement than Obama's continued connection (until recently) with the Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

Quickly, before I drop this argument, I have two quick comments, and I'll make them as quick as I can:

— John McCain was NOT a member of Hagee's church, he never spent time listening to his sermons, he never brought his family to Hagee's sermons, and McCain never classified Hagee as a figure inspirational in shaping his beliefs. Obama, sadly, cannot say the same.

— Hagee and McCain have had a very smooth parting over the past few days, and Hagee just today remarked that it was "best for both of us and the country" that Hagee rescinded his endorsement of Obama. On the contrary, the Reverend Wright still stands by the things he says and his done little to get himself out of the public spotlight, only causing more damage to Obama.

Are Hagee and McCain both conservatives in the way Wright and Obama are liberals?

Yes.

Does Hagee realize that it's more important for the livelihood of the Republican party this November if he avoids hogging the spotlight and lets McCain get back to campaigning?

Yes.

Democrats be warned; the Republicans have united behind McCain. 100%

Al Gore in Words and Images: A Profile

2008-05-22T20:55:00.001-04:00

This week's profile is a video I created using footage I spent a weekend collecting from around Massachusetts and the words of Al Gore from a number of speeches, interviews, and policy forums.

This is not a biographical documentary, and it's not an opinionated documentary either. This is Al Gore "as is."

Words can be powerful and moving, especially Gore's and especially with accompanying music and images, but is Al Gore merely a master of rhetoric?

Has Al Gore failed in his efforts to effect change?

What lies beyond the inspiring words?

How much progress have we made?

Obama Must Face His "Red, White, and Blue" United States

2008-05-21T02:21:00.008-04:00

Four years ago the soaring vision of the up and coming Senator Barack Obama united the Democrats; a future leader had a dream for America in which party politics were left behind in favor of the common good. Instead of that ideal turning into reality, it seems Obama's hope for a patriotic red, white, and blue America has played out literally.

As he shifts gear into a general election campaign, Barack Obama must now confront not one, but three Americas: Republicans, Obama-Democrats, and working-class white voters.

It's hard to decided whether or not to blame Senator Obama for the situation he is currently being confronted with. On one hand, Obama's "sweetie" and "bitter" comments have angered women and moderate to conservative rural democrats, his inability to distance himself from the inflammatory sermons of Rev. Jeremiah Wright (still), and Michelle Obama's statements that make us wonder why this man and woman want to be America's first family give me tremendous pause about Obama.

On the other hand, the long nomination process has forced Obama to draw distinctions between himself and Senator Clinton and expose weaknesses that otherwise may not have been discovered. This is not Obama's fault, and neither is the fact that the long primary season has forced Obama's name into the national media on a 24/7 basis, diluting his image as a Washington outsider with every news cycle featuring a story on him.

Kentucky's primary results from yesterday (a 35% win for Clinton) and West Virginia's from last week (Clinton's 41% victory) expose a critical weakness for Obama along certain demographics. What I've been so disappointed by in talking about this election is that I am often criticized for bringing up the fact that voters without a college degree in Kentucky, for example, voted for Clinton over Obama nearly 3-1. These observations, apparently, "divide us" and prevent us as Demographics from working to fix the problems that face us. I've heard it all before.

Don't get me wrong, I think much of Senator Obama's message represents a fantasic injection of life and energy into the Democratic Party that has not been around for years. But at the same time I am a Democrat first and foremost, and my biggest concern is not the preservation of the Obama campaign theme, rather that a Democrat wins in November. Though there are intricacies behind each of these statements that I could discuss, the following are simple facts in my eyes:

If Obama is a weak candidate among working-class white voters, Democrats should be aware of this instead of having John Edwards hop into the picture and try to pass on some credibility to Obama. Come November, endorsements matter much less than whether or not working-class whites are comfortable with Obama over McCain.

Regardless of whether or not Obama wins the Democratic nomination (and he will), I consider it presumptuous of him to make his quasi-victory speech last night. Not only had that plan been in the works for weeks, but as the Democratic-bashers at Boston talk radio 96.9 WTKK said repeatedly yesterday, Obama is declaring victory because he has more points at the end of the third period.

Finally and most important to me, can Obama beat John McCain? Can Obama win tough battleground states that he's lost in decisive primaries? What does the poll below mean?

In a state that rallied around Barack Obama during the Democratic Primary, North Carolina voters chose Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama when McCain sits across the ticket.

My guess is that Hillary Clinton, regardless of how well she does in certain general election polls, will be effectively "out" of the campaign by June 4th. So, as I prepare to become an Obama Democrat, I want to make some predictions as to how I see the 2008 election playing out. On the record, this weekend, I'll lay out how I see November's vote going down.

Covering Kennedy

2008-05-21T00:24:00.002-04:00

Looking for an alternative take on yesterday's news about Senator Kennedy? Tired of the gushy biographical television tributes whenever a celeb ends up in the hospital? BitsBlog is.

All the while it's hard not to be moved if you watch Senator Byrd today in Washington. Kennedy may be a politician, and it's not right to praise him unduly and judge him in a different light now that he's ill, but for some, like Byrd, Kennedy is a close colleague and loyal friend. Now is a not a time for politics, rather a time for consideration and for acknowledging Kennedy's many years of service, no matter what side of the aisle he's on.